Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 18 2025 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley
Burnley
2–0 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 0.45 – 2.63
Leeds
  • L. Ugochukwu 18’
  • L. Tchaouna 68’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Burnley beat Leeds

Burnley entered as narrow favourites and won 2–0 through goals from Ugochukwu and Tchaouna. Burnley won despite the lower xG; Leeds created the better chances (2.63 vs 0.45). On the chances created, Leeds deserved more: 2.6 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Burnley ✓40%
Draw27%
Leeds33%

Model vs reality

Burnley goals
2
Model 1.47 · xG 0.45
Leeds goals
0
Model 1.32 · xG 2.63
Total goals
2
Model 2.79 · xG 3.08
Score 2–0
7%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 53%
Both scored
No
Model 57%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. DúbravkaBurnley
7.9
  • RefereeTim Robinson
  • VenueTurf Moor
  • Table before kick-offBurnley 18th · Leeds 15th

Timeline

  1. L. Ugochukwu 1–0Assist K. Walker
    18’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. J. AnthonyYellow card · Argument
    52’
  4. ⇄ L. TchaounaFor J. Bruun Larsen
    58’
  5. ⇄ D. JamesFor B. Aaronson
    66’
  6. ⇄ L. NmechaFor J. Harrison
    66’
  7. L. Tchaouna 2–0Assist Florentino
    68’
  8. ⇄ J. PiroeFor A. Stach
    73’
  9. ⇄ J. LaurentFor Z. Flemming
    77’
  10. ⇄ A. TanakaFor E. Ampadu
    81’
  11. ⇄ H. MejbriFor L. Ugochukwu
    83’
  12. ⇄ A. BarnesFor J. Anthony
    83’
  13. H. MejbriYellow card · Argument
    90+2’
  14. P. StruijkYellow card · Argument
    90+2’
  15. Full time · 2–0

Team stats

Burnley4 shots · 1 in box, 3 outside
Leeds19 shots · 17 in box, 2 outside
BurnleyLeeds
31% Possession 69%
0.45 Expected goals (xG) 2.63
0.25 Expected points (xPts) 2.63
4 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 4
1 Shots off target 12
0 Blocked shots 3
1 Shots inside the box 17
3 Shots outside the box 2
292 Passes 615
76% Pass accuracy 86%
1 Corners 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
7.10 Team rating 6.69

Line-ups

Burnley 4-2-3-1

17.9★ M. Dúbravka(G)
37.0 Q. Hartman 57.3 M. Estève 66.9 A. Tuanzebe 27.6 K. Walker A
167.3 Florentino A 246.9 J. Cullen
116.0 J. Anthony ↓83’ 87.9 L. Ugochukwu ↓83’ 76.7 J. Bruun Larsen ↓58’
196.3 Z. Flemming ↓77’
  • 1M. Dúbravka (G) ★7.9
  • 3Q. Hartman7.0
  • 5M. Estève7.3
  • 6A. Tuanzebe6.9
  • 2K. WalkerA7.6
  • 16FlorentinoA7.3
  • 24J. Cullen6.9
  • 11J. Anthony↓83’6.0
  • 8L. Ugochukwu↓83’7.9
  • 7J. Bruun Larsen↓58’6.7
  • 19Z. Flemming↓77’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 28H. Mejbri↑83’6.6
  • 17L. Tchaouna↑58’7.5
  • 35A. Barnes↑83’6.6
  • 29J. Laurent↑77’6.7

Unused: Max Weiss, A. Broja, Lucas Pires, M. Edwards, H. Ekdal

Leeds 4-3-3

265.9 K. Darlow(G)
37.3 G. Gudmundsson 56.9 P. Struijk 67.0 J. Rodon 26.2 J. Bogle
186.2 A. Stach ↓73’ 47.3 E. Ampadu ↓81’ 86.7 S. Longstaff
206.9 J. Harrison ↓66’ 96.3 D. Calvert-Lewin 117.0 B. Aaronson ↓66’
  • 26K. Darlow (G)5.9
  • 3G. Gudmundsson7.3
  • 5P. Struijk6.9
  • 6J. Rodon7.0
  • 2J. Bogle6.2
  • 18A. Stach↓73’6.2
  • 4E. Ampadu↓81’7.3
  • 8S. Longstaff6.7
  • 20J. Harrison↓66’6.9
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.3
  • 11B. Aaronson↓66’7.0

Substitutes used

  • 7D. James↑66’7.2
  • 14L. Nmecha↑66’6.3
  • 10J. Piroe↑73’6.2
  • 22A. Tanaka↑81’6.9

Unused: Lucas Perri, S. Bornauw, J. Justin, J. Bijol, I. Gruev

Player stats

Top rated
M. DúbravkaBurnley7.9
2nd
L. UgochukwuBurnley7.9
3rd
K. WalkerBurnley7.6

Burnley

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Dúbravka G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 65% 26 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.9
Q. Hartman D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 73% 33 4 1 0/0 0/0 7.0
M. Estève D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 26 2 2 0/0 1/0 7.3
A. Tuanzebe D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 26 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.9
K. Walker D 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 83% 36 1 4 0/0 2/1 7.6
Florentino M 90 0 1 1 (0) 1 93% 27 3 2 0/1 1/0 7.3
J. Cullen M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 88% 43 0 2 0/1 1/1 6.9
J. Anthony F 83 0 0 0 (0) 0 68% 19 0 1 0/2 2/3 6.0
L. Ugochukwu M 83 1 0 1 (1) 0 72% 18 0 3 0/0 0/2 7.9
J. Bruun Larsen F 58 0 0 1 (1) 0 64% 14 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.7
Z. Flemming M 77 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 14 1 0 1/2 2/0 6.3
H. Mejbri M 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 3 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
L. Tchaouna F 32 1 0 1 (1) 0 67% 3 0 1 0/1 0/0 7.5
A. Barnes F 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 20% 5 0 0 1/1 1/0 6.6
J. Laurent M 13 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Darlow G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 60% 25 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.9
G. Gudmundsson D 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 82% 56 2 1 4/5 1/2 7.3
P. Struijk D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 100 2 0 0/0 0/3 6.9
J. Rodon D 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 90% 103 1 1 0/0 1/0 7.0
J. Bogle D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 80% 46 0 1 1/2 1/1 6.2
A. Stach M 73 0 0 2 (1) 0 86% 49 0 1 0/0 2/1 6.2
E. Ampadu D 81 0 0 1 (0) 0 91% 70 5 1 0/0 1/0 7.3
S. Longstaff M 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 85% 61 0 2 0/1 0/2 6.7
J. Harrison F 66 0 0 2 (0) 1 88% 33 1 1 0/0 0/1 6.9
D. Calvert-Lewin F 90 0 0 4 (0) 1 79% 14 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
B. Aaronson M 66 0 0 1 (1) 2 86% 21 1 3 1/1 1/0 7.0
D. James M 24 0 0 0 (0) 2 71% 7 1 0 0/2 0/0 7.2
L. Nmecha F 24 0 0 2 (1) 0 50% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
J. Piroe F 17 0 0 2 (0) 0 73% 11 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.2
A. Tanaka M 9 0 0 0 (0) 1 87% 15 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.