Burnley vs Leeds – 18 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 18 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LLDLL

2–0Full time

Leeds 15th · 8 pts · 7 played DLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Burnley had 13 days of rest, Leeds 14.1 and had to travel 45 km.

Away travel45 kmRest days13 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

Burnley40%

Draw27%

Leeds33%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.32

Burnley41%

Draw27%

Leeds32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Burnley41%

Draw26%

Leeds33%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.31

Burnley33%

Draw26%

Leeds41%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.48

Burnley40%

Draw27%

Leeds33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeTim Robinson

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 113

Team strength

Burnley

Leeds

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

27 AttackIn forecast 69

25 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Leeds

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

0.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

71% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

8.00 ShotsContext 12.14

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

32% On target shareContext 28%

4.86 Shots in the boxContext 7.71

59% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.60

18.71 Shots allowedContext 10.71

5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

5.86 BlocksContext 3.17

4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

73% Save rateContext 75%

35% PossessionIn forecast 45%

318 PassesContext 403

241 Accurate passesContext 328

76% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.71

9.86 FoulsContext 10.43

8.86 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.70 ShotsContext 15.00

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

40% On target shareContext 34%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

63% Box shareContext 65%

18% ConversionContext 13%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.38

16.40 Shots allowedContext 8.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

5.40 BlocksContext 2.86

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29

74% Save rateContext 80%

43% PossessionIn forecast 54%

369 PassesContext 493

294 Accurate passesContext 421

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.50 FoulsContext 9.30

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km297 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel45 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct	14.1Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	45 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	297 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 6A. Tuanzebe 2K. Walker

16Florentino 24J. Cullen

11J. Anthony 8L. Ugochukwu 7J. Bruun Larsen

19Z. Flemming

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

4-3-3

26K. Darlow(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 2J. Bogle

18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 8S. Longstaff

20J. Harrison 9D. Calvert-Lewin 11B. Aaronson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley-0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Leeds+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Leeds · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Burnley	Leeds
Tottenham	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Burnley wins2 draws3 Leeds wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.50 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 50%

27 Jan 2025Burnley0–0Leeds
14 Sep 2024Leeds0–1Burnley
2 Jan 2022Leeds3–1Burnley
29 Aug 2021Burnley1–1Leeds
15 May 2021Burnley0–4Leeds
27 Dec 2020Leeds1–0Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.14	1.57
Match goals	3.14	2.57	2.79
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	53%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	29%	43%
Games	7	7

	Burnley	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.14	1.57
Match goals	3.14	2.57	2.79
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	53%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	29%	43%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.67
Corners conceded	7.14	2.83
Match total	10.14	7.50	9.71
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.71	1.43
Opponent cards	1.29	1.43
Match total	3.00	2.86	3.97
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	14% 1/7

	Burnley	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	5.50
Corners conceded	5.90	2.38
Match total	9.60	7.88	9.71
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.40
Opponent cards	1.60	1.20
Match total	3.20	2.60	3.97
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tim Robinson 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 3.83

Red cards0.15league 0.14

Cards 5+42%league 44%

Fouls22.7league 22.3

Penalties0.16league 0.21

Home wins48%league 48%

Burnley4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L10 Feb 24A · Liverpool1–32
W25 Apr 23A · Blackburn1–05
W15 Mar 23A · Hull City3–12
W22 Oct 22A · Sunderland4–23

Leeds4 with this referee

Record0-3-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D15 Mar 25A · QPR2–22
D4 Oct 24A · Sunderland2–23
D9 Apr 24H · Sunderland0–02
L12 Aug 23A · Birmingham0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.