Burnley vs Sunderland – 23 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–0Full time

Sunderland 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Burnley were clear favourites.

Burnley were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 32). Burnley had 7 days of rest, Sunderland 7 and had to travel 135 km.

Away travel135 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Burnley64%

Draw21%

Sunderland15%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.98

Burnley62%

Draw22%

Sunderland16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Burnley64%

Draw21%

Sunderland15%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.95

Burnley56%

Draw23%

Sunderland21%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.09

Burnley62%

Draw22%

Sunderland16%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.92

Over 2.5 61% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 70

Team strength

Burnley

Sunderland

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

27 AttackIn forecast 62

25 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Sunderland

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 0.69

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

80% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 9.10

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

40% On target shareContext 31%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

65% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 7%

3.25 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

3.40 BlocksContext 4.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

67% Save rateContext 68%

55% PossessionIn forecast 48%

445 PassesContext 399

370 Accurate passesContext 324

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.10 FoulsContext 11.30

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sunderland

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel135 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug	7Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	135 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	583 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 18H. Ekdal 2K. Walker

24J. Cullen 8L. Ugochukwu

11J. Anthony 28H. Mejbri 7J. Bruun Larsen

9L. Foster

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 5D. Ballard 32T. Hume

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka 19M. Diarra

24S. Adingra 12Eliezer Mayenda 7C. Talbi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sunderland Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Sunderland+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home No home games yet this season.

Sunderland · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Burnley wins2 draws1 Sunderland wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 75%

17 Jan 2025Burnley0–0Sunderland
24 Aug 2024Sunderland1–0Burnley
31 Mar 2023Burnley0–0Sunderland
22 Oct 2022Sunderland2–4Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.14
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Burnley	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.14
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.00
Corners conceded	6.00	7.00
Match total	11.00	12.00	10.08
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	1.00
Match total	0.00	1.00	3.08
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Burnley	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.50
Corners conceded	3.90	3.60
Match total	8.60	9.10	10.08
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.30
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	3.50	4.30	3.08
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 70 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.53league 3.00

Red cards0.23league 0.08

Cards 5+36%league 33%

Fouls22.2league 21.3

Penalties0.26league 0.25

Home wins49%league 42%

Burnley4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W19 Oct 24A · Sheffield Wednesday2–02
W17 Aug 24H · Cardiff5–02
L27 Aug 23H · Aston Villa1–32
W10 Apr 23H · Sheffield Utd2–01

Sunderland1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W29 Dec 22A · Wigan4–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.