Burnley
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Burnley63.9%fair odds 1.56
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.86
Sunderland15.5%fair odds 6.46
Expected goals2.16 – 0.98total 3.14
Likeliest score2–010.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Burnley ↓ · Sunderland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Burnley goals, columns Sunderland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%9.86
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 1–19.6%10.37
- 1–08.9%11.24
- 3–07.3%13.70
- 3–17.1%14.03
- 0–04.8%20.71
- 2–24.8%20.71
- 1–24.5%22.38
- 4–03.9%25.36
Winning margin
21.5%
Burnley by 3+
fair 4.64
19.4%
Burnley by 2
fair 5.15
23.0%
Burnley by 1
fair 4.36
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.86
10.1%
Sunderland by 1
fair 9.90
4.0%
Sunderland by 2
fair 25.23
1.4%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 70.83
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Burnley goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Sunderland goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 63.9% | 62.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 21.9% | -1.3 pp |
| Sunderland win | 15.5% | 15.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 56.1% | +4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.6% | 52.6% | +3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Burnley | 2.16 | 2.01 | +0.15 |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 0.98 | 0.92 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Burnley win63.9%1.56
- Draw20.6%4.86
- Sunderland win15.5%6.46
- Double chance Burnley or draw84.5%1.18
- Double chance Burnley or Sunderland79.4%1.26
- Double chance Sunderland or draw36.1%2.77
- Draw no bet Burnley80.5%1.24
- Draw no bet Sunderland19.5%5.13
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.5%1.21
- Over 2.560.7%1.65
- Over 3.538.3%2.61
- Over 4.520.8%4.80
- Under 1.517.5%5.72
- Under 2.539.3%2.54
- Under 3.561.7%1.62
Both teams to score
- Yes55.6%1.80
- No44.4%2.25
- Yes and over 2.546.0%2.18
- Burnley win and yes31.1%3.22
- Draw and yes15.8%6.34
- Sunderland win and yes8.8%11.39
Team goals
- Burnley over 0.588.5%1.13
- Burnley over 1.563.6%1.57
- Burnley over 2.536.7%2.73
- Sunderland over 0.562.3%1.60
- Sunderland over 1.525.5%3.92
- Sunderland over 2.57.6%13.17
- Burnley clean sheet37.7%2.65
- Sunderland clean sheet11.5%8.68
- Burnley win to nil32.9%3.04
- Sunderland win to nil6.7%14.93
Handicap
- Burnley −1.541.0%2.44
- Burnley −2.521.5%4.64
- Sunderland +1.559.0%1.69
- Sunderland +2.578.5%1.27
- Sunderland −1.55.4%18.60
- Burnley +1.594.6%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won58.3%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.604
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right33.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 5 | 46.0% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 53.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 67.3% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✗Manchester City 0–2 Tottenham67·19·14
- ✓West Ham 1–5 Chelsea25·24·50
- ✓Leeds 1–0 Everton45·25·30
- ✓Manchester United 0–1 Arsenal23·24·53
- ✓Nottingham Forest 3–1 Brentford45·26·29
- ✗Chelsea 0–0 Crystal Palace54·24·22
- ✓Wolves 0–4 Manchester City21·23·57
- ✗Sunderland 3–0 West Ham27·25·47
- ✗Brighton 1–1 Fulham52·24·24
- ✓Tottenham 3–0 Burnley44·25·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.