Serie A Gameweek 18 Fri, Jan 2 2026 · 19:45 Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Cagliari
0–1 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 0.38 – 0.92
AC Milan
  • 50’ Rafael Leão
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Leão goal decides it for AC Milan

AC Milan entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Leão goal. AC Milan finished with the higher xG (0.92 vs 0.38). On the chances created, Cagliari deserved more: 0.8 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Cagliari19%
Draw25%
AC Milan ✓56%

Model vs reality

Cagliari goals
0
Model 0.91 · xG 0.38
AC Milan goals
1
Model 1.71 · xG 0.92
Total goals
1
Model 2.62 · xG 1.30
Score 0–1
12%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 49%
Both scored
No
Model 49%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchRafael LeãoAC Milan · 1 goal
7.7
  • RefereeRosario Abisso
  • CoachesFabio Pisacane · —
  • VenueUnipol Domus
  • Table before kick-offCagliari 14th · AC Milan 2nd

Timeline

  1. Half time · 0–0
  2. Rafael Leão 0–1Assist A. Rabiot
    50’
  3. ⇄ Riyad IdrissiFor A. Obert
    61’
  4. ⇄ G. BorrelliFor M. Prati
    61’
  5. ⇄ G. GaetanoFor S. Esposito
    66’
  6. ⇄ N. FüllkrugFor Rafael Leão
    69’
  7. ⇄ S. RicciFor Y. Fofana
    69’
  8. ⇄ C. PulišićFor R. Loftus-Cheek
    79’
  9. ⇄ M. GabbiaFor P. Estupiñán
    79’
  10. ⇄ N. CavuotiFor L. Mazzitelli
    83’
  11. ⇄ L. PavolettiFor S. Kılıçsoy
    83’
  12. Riyad IdrissiYellow card · Roughing
    83’
  13. A. SaelemaekersYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    90+1’
  14. M. PalestraYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    90+1’
  15. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Cagliari6 shots · 4 in box, 2 outside
AC Milan11 shots · 7 in box, 4 outside
CagliariAC Milan
46% Possession 54%
0.38 Expected goals (xG) 0.92
0.82 Expected points (xPts) 1.80
6 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 4
4 Shots off target 4
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Shots inside the box 7
2 Shots outside the box 4
439 Passes 530
87% Pass accuracy 88%
6 Corners 7
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.71 Team rating 6.96

Line-ups

Cagliari 3-5-2

17.0 E. Caprile(G)
156.9 J. Rodríguez 66.3 S. Luperto 286.2 G. Zappa
337.3 A. Obert ↓61’ 46.9 L. Mazzitelli ↓83’ 166.3 M. Prati ↓61’ 86.9 M. Adopo 26.9 M. Palestra
947.2 S. Esposito ↓66’ 96.3 S. Kılıçsoy ↓83’
  • 1E. Caprile (G)7.0
  • 15J. Rodríguez6.9
  • 6S. Luperto6.3
  • 28G. Zappa6.2
  • 33A. Obert↓61’7.3
  • 4L. Mazzitelli↓83’6.9
  • 16M. Prati↓61’6.3
  • 8M. Adopo6.9
  • 2M. Palestra6.9
  • 94S. Esposito↓66’7.2
  • 9S. Kılıçsoy↓83’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 10G. Gaetano↑66’6.6
  • 21N. Cavuoti↑83’6.7
  • 3Riyad Idrissi↑61’6.6
  • 30L. Pavoletti↑83’6.3
  • 29G. Borrelli↑61’6.2

Unused: B. Radunović, G. Ciocci, Y. Mina, Nicola Pintus, A. Deiola, M. Rog, J. Liteta, A. Di Pardo, Zito Luvumbo, Yael Trepy

Coach: Fabio Pisacane

AC Milan 3-5-2

166.6 M. Maignan(G)
337.2 D. Bartesaghi 57.3 K. De Winter 237.0 O. Tomori
26.3 P. Estupiñán ↓79’ 126.7 A. Rabiot A 147.6 L. Modrić 196.5 Y. Fofana ↓69’ 566.9 A. Saelemaekers
86.9 R. Loftus-Cheek ↓79’ 107.7★ Rafael Leão ↓69’
  • 16M. Maignan (G)6.6
  • 33D. Bartesaghi7.2
  • 5K. De Winter7.3
  • 23O. Tomori7.0
  • 2P. Estupiñán↓79’6.3
  • 12A. RabiotA6.7
  • 14L. Modrić7.6
  • 19Y. Fofana↓69’6.5
  • 56A. Saelemaekers6.9
  • 8R. Loftus-Cheek↓79’6.9
  • 10Rafael Leão ★↓69’7.7

Substitutes used

  • 46M. Gabbia↑79’6.7
  • 11C. Pulišić↑79’6.3
  • 4S. Ricci↑69’7.0
  • 9N. Füllkrug↑69’6.7

Unused: L. Torriani, P. Terracciano, S. Pavlović, D. Odogu, Z. Athekame, A. Jashari, A. Castiello

Player stats

Top rated
Rafael LeãoAC Milan7.7
2nd
L. ModrićAC Milan7.6
3rd
A. ObertCagliari7.3

Cagliari

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Caprile G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 77% 26 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
J. Rodríguez D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 92% 59 3 1 0/0 1/0 6.9
S. Luperto D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 98% 49 1 1 0/0 3/2 6.3
G. Zappa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 51 2 1 0/2 0/0 6.2
A. Obert D 61 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 29 3 0 3/3 1/0 7.3
L. Mazzitelli M 83 0 0 1 (0) 0 84% 43 3 1 1/1 1/1 6.9
M. Prati M 61 0 0 2 (0) 1 85% 26 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
M. Adopo M 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 90% 39 3 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
M. Palestra M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 92% 36 2 1 1/5 0/3 6.9
S. Esposito F 66 0 0 0 (0) 1 66% 32 3 0 0/1 1/1 7.2
S. Kılıçsoy F 83 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 16 0 0 0/3 1/1 6.3
G. Gaetano M 24 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 15 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.6
N. Cavuoti M 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
Riyad Idrissi D 29 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 11 2 1 1/2 1/0 6.6
L. Pavoletti F 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
G. Borrelli F 29 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2

AC Milan

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Maignan G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 81% 16 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
D. Bartesaghi D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 83% 66 3 0 1/2 1/0 7.2
K. De Winter D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 99% 77 1 0 1/1 0/0 7.3
O. Tomori D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 70 2 4 0/0 1/0 7.0
P. Estupiñán D 79 0 0 0 (0) 0 78% 23 1 1 0/0 1/0 6.3
A. Rabiot M 90 0 1 1 (0) 1 83% 48 0 1 2/3 2/1 6.7
L. Modrić M 90 0 0 1 (1) 3 92% 74 3 2 0/1 0/0 7.6
Y. Fofana M 69 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 23 0 0 0/1 0/1 6.5
A. Saelemaekers F 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 87% 54 1 1 1/5 0/4 6.9
R. Loftus-Cheek M 79 0 0 2 (0) 0 83% 18 3 0 0/1 1/2 6.9
Rafael Leão F 69 1 0 1 (1) 1 79% 19 1 0 1/2 1/0 7.7
M. Gabbia D 11 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
C. Pulišić M 11 0 0 1 (1) 0 78% 9 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.3
S. Ricci M 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 92% 13 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
N. Füllkrug F 21 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 9 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.