Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Cagliari. Cagliari had 6.2 days of rest, AC Milan 5.3 and had to travel 693 km.
Away travel693 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Cagliari19%
Draw25%
AC Milan56%
Cagliari20%
Draw24%
AC Milan56%
Cagliari20%
Draw26%
AC Milan54%
Cagliari15%
Draw22%
AC Milan63%
Cagliari19%
Draw24%
AC Milan57%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 47
Team strength
Cagliari
AC Milan
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
31
AttackIn forecast
72
31
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariAC Milan
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
71%
Scored inContext
94%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.76
ShotsContext
12.94
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
36%
On target shareContext
36%
6.06
Shots in the boxContext
8.69
58%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.87
13.29
Shots allowedContext
10.69
5.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
3.93
BlocksContext
3.47
4.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
366
PassesContext
472
293
Accurate passesContext
414
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.88
FoulsContext
9.44
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.94
2.47
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.70
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
38%
On target shareContext
38%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
55%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
84%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
386
PassesContext
472
310
Accurate passesContext
412
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.98
16.10
FoulsContext
9.50
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel693 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 693 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,320 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
6S. Luperto
28G. Zappa
33A. Obert
4L. Mazzitelli
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
9S. Kılıçsoy
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
33D. Bartesaghi
5K. De Winter
23O. Tomori
2P. Estupiñán
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
8R. Loftus-Cheek
10Rafael Leão
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- AC Milan+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
AC Milan · Away
2.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-0
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Verona | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 16 of 45 · 1.07 per game | 35 of 45 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Cagliari wins2 draws4 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 11 Jan 2025AC Milan1–1Cagliari
- 9 Nov 2024Cagliari3–3AC Milan
- 11 May 2024AC Milan5–1Cagliari
- 27 Sep 2023Cagliari1–3AC Milan
- 19 Mar 2022Cagliari0–1AC Milan
- 29 Aug 2021AC Milan4–1Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.50 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 56% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 6% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Cagliari | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.71 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 3/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 2/15 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.53 | 3.75 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cagliari | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.50 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.10 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.91
Red cards0.30league 0.16
Cards 5+49%league 39%
Fouls25.3league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.30
Home wins28%league 39%
Cagliari2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W28 Apr 25A · Verona2–01
- L3 Apr 22A · Udinese1–54
AC Milan3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 4.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W26 Jan 25H · Parma3–22
- D11 Nov 23A · Lecce2–27
- L30 Oct 22A · Torino1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari17 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
AC Milan16 games · scored 27 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
7
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
