Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Cagliari had 9.9 days of rest, Atalanta 8.9 and had to travel 720 km.
Away travel720 kmRest days9.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cagliari21%
Draw27%
Atalanta52%
Cagliari20%
Draw24%
Atalanta56%
Cagliari21%
Draw27%
Atalanta52%
Cagliari16%
Draw24%
Atalanta59%
Cagliari22%
Draw25%
Atalanta53%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Cagliari
Atalanta
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
31
AttackIn forecast
48
31
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariAtalanta
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
64%
Scored inContext
82%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
9.85
ShotsContext
14.58
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
32%
On target shareContext
30%
6.16
Shots in the boxContext
9.61
60%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.73
Shots allowedContext
11.58
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.94
BlocksContext
3.23
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
71%
Save rateContext
81%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
385
PassesContext
481
314
Accurate passesContext
408
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.67
FoulsContext
10.79
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
10.12
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.20
ShotsContext
15.10
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
24%
On target shareContext
31%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
63%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.88
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
4.10
BlocksContext
3.40
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
65%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
398
PassesContext
468
328
Accurate passesContext
394
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.40
FoulsContext
10.30
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest9.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,386 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel720 km961 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.9Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Apr | 8.9Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 720 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,386 km | 961 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
8M. Adopo
90M. Folorunsho
14A. Deiola
10G. Gaetano
31Paul Mendy
94S. Esposito
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
23S. Kolašinac
19B. Djimsiti
42G. Scalvini
77D. Zappacosta
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
16R. Bellanova
18G. Raspadori
17C. De Ketelaere
9G. Scamacca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Atalanta-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-7
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.13
Atalanta · Away
1.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-7-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Pisa | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Como | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Lecce | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 AW 4–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Juventus | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 33 of 96 · 1.03 per game | 51 of 96 · 1.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Cagliari wins1 draws4 Atalanta wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 13 Dec 2025Atalanta2–1Cagliari
- 15 Feb 2025Atalanta0–0Cagliari
- 14 Dec 2024Cagliari0–1Atalanta
- 7 Apr 2024Cagliari2–1Atalanta
- 24 Sep 2023Atalanta2–0Cagliari
- 6 Feb 2022Atalanta1–2Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 2.24 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 36% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 18% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Cagliari | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.39 | 10.25 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 13/31 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 7/31 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 5/31 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 3.25 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 21/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 13/33 | 9% 3/33 | |
| Cagliari | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 9.40 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.71
Red cards0.00league 0.18
Cards 5+27%league 35%
Fouls26.1league 24.8
Penalties0.27league 0.29
Home wins55%league 40%
Cagliari1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 Nov 25A · Lazio0–22
Atalanta2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W14 Feb 26A · Lazio2–04
- W25 Jan 26H · Parma4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari33 games · scored 33 · conceded 47
8
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
5
9
46-60
9
7
61-75
8
13
76-90
Atalanta33 games · scored 45 · conceded 29
7
1
0-15
4
8
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
6
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
