Cagliari vs Cremonese – 11 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 32 Sat, Apr 11 · 14:00 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari 16th · 30 pts · 31 played DLLLL

1–0Full time

Cremonese 17th · 27 pts · 31 played LLLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Cagliari were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Cagliari had 7 days of rest, Cremonese 6 and had to travel 661 km.

Away travel661 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Cagliari47%

Draw29%

Cremonese24%

Expected goals 1.35 – 0.90

Cagliari49%

Draw26%

Cremonese25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.11

Cagliari45%

Draw29%

Cremonese25%

Expected goals 1.33 – 0.93

Cagliari40%

Draw30%

Cremonese30%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.01

Cagliari48%

Draw27%

Cremonese25%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.00

Over 2.5 39% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 81

Team strength

Cagliari

Cremonese

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

31 AttackIn forecast 16

31 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Cremonese

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.84

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

65% Scored inContext 55%

19% Clean sheetsContext 26%

9.87 ShotsContext 8.81

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.23

33% On target shareContext 36%

6.24 Shots in the boxContext 5.66

60% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.27 OffsidesContext 2.27

12.84 Shots allowedContext 16.13

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.39

4.00 BlocksContext 4.67

3.64 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.07

72% Save rateContext 74%

46% PossessionIn forecast 45%

391 PassesContext 366

319 Accurate passesContext 286

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.19 FoulsContext 13.61

14.61 Fouls sufferedContext 12.97

2.32 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

60% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.50 ShotsContext 9.90

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

32% On target shareContext 33%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

64% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.00 Shots allowedContext 16.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.30 BlocksContext 4.50

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

68% Save rateContext 67%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

425 PassesContext 350

351 Accurate passesContext 269

83% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.90 FoulsContext 15.20

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,241 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cremonese

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel661 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Cremonese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Apr	6Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	661 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,241 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Caprile(G)

4L. Mazzitelli 26Y. Mina 15J. Rodríguez

33A. Obert 14A. Deiola 10G. Gaetano 90M. Folorunsho 2M. Palestra

94S. Esposito 29G. Borrelli

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Cremonese Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Audero(G)

3G. Pezzella 5S. Luperto 6F. Baschirotto 24F. Terracciano

27J. Vandeputte 33A. Grassi 38W. Bondo 22R. Floriani Mussolini

77D. Okereke 90F. Bonazzoli

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Cremonese Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari+1.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Cremonese-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home 1.07points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-7
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.20

Cremonese · Away 0.94points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-9
Scored: 0.81
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Cagliari	Cremonese
Sassuolo	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 AW 3–2 H
Napoli	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 H
Pisa	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Como	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Parma	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 A
Lecce	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Verona	W 4–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Juventus	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H
Genoa	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Torino	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Atalanta	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Bologna	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 HW 3–1 A
Udinese	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Inter	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 HL 1–4 A
Points	29 of 90 · 0.97 per game	26 of 90 · 0.87 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Cagliari wins1 draws0 Cremonese wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

8 Jan 2026Cremonese2–2Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	0.84
Conceded per game	1.42	1.48
Match goals	2.45	2.32	2.25
Over 1.5	77%	71%
Over 2.5	48%	42%	39%
Over 3.5	19%	23%
Both teams scored	52%	45%	45%
Clean sheets	19%	26%
Failed to score	35%	45%
Games	31	31

	Cagliari	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.60
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	2.40	2.40	2.25
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	39%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.52	3.33
Corners conceded	4.76	6.37
Match total	8.28	9.70	8.64
Over 8.5	41% 12/29	63% 19/30
Over 9.5	21% 6/29	43% 13/30
Over 10.5	14% 4/29	27% 8/30
Cards
Cards	2.39	2.06
Opponent cards	1.84	1.52
Match total	4.23	3.58	3.90
Over 3.5	68% 21/31	42% 13/31
Over 4.5	42% 13/31	26% 8/31

	Cagliari	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	3.20
Corners conceded	4.30	6.60
Match total	7.50	9.80	8.64
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	1.10
Match total	3.90	3.00	3.90
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 81 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.28league 3.72

Red cards0.20league 0.19

Cards 5+26%league 35%

Fouls24.6league 25.0

Penalties0.21league 0.30

Home wins25%league 40%

Cagliari7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W27 Dec 25A · Torino2–11
L28 Dec 24H · Inter0–30
W19 May 24A · Sassuolo2–02
D1 Apr 24H · Verona1–10
D17 Sep 23H · Udinese0–02

Cremonese2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D30 Apr 23H · Verona1–11
W8 Apr 23A · Sampdoria3–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.