Cagliari vs Fiorentina – 24 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 24 · 17:30 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari

1–1Full time

Fiorentina

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 26). Cagliari had ? days of rest, Fiorentina ? and had to travel 536 km.

Away travel536 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Cagliari25%

Draw28%

Fiorentina48%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.46

Cagliari25%

Draw26%

Fiorentina49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

Cagliari24%

Draw28%

Fiorentina48%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.48

Cagliari19%

Draw26%

Fiorentina55%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.64

Cagliari25%

Draw26%

Fiorentina49%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.62

Over 2.5 44% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 71

Team strength

Cagliari

Fiorentina

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

31 AttackIn forecast 42

31 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Fiorentina

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.00 ShotsContext 12.90

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 39%

5.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

60% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.89

11.70 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.80 BlocksContext 4.44

1.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

59% Save rateContext 65%

42% PossessionIn forecast 52%

345 PassesContext 452

270 Accurate passesContext 383

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.90 FoulsContext 13.30

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel536 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	536 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 6S. Luperto 26Y. Mina 28G. Zappa

14A. Deiola 16M. Prati 8M. Adopo

94S. Esposito

90M. Folorunsho 29G. Borrelli

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo

21R. Gosens 44N. Fagioli 7S. Sohm 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 10A. Guðmundsson

20M. Kean

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari+0.5 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Fiorentina-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home No home games yet this season.

Fiorentina · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Cagliari wins1 draws5 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.17 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

23 Apr 2025Cagliari1–2Fiorentina
8 Dec 2024Fiorentina1–0Cagliari
23 May 2024Cagliari2–3Fiorentina
2 Oct 2023Fiorentina3–0Cagliari
23 Jan 2022Cagliari1–1Fiorentina
24 Oct 2021Fiorentina3–0Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.44
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	44%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	49%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Cagliari	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.44
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	44%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	49%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Cagliari	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.70
Corners conceded	5.10	4.80
Match total	9.10	9.50	7.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	3.20
Opponent cards	1.30	2.00
Match total	3.10	5.20	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.41league 3.75

Red cards0.11league 0.25

Cards 5+44%league 50%

Fouls25.1league 28.0

Penalties0.46league 0.00

Home wins38%league 25%

Cagliari5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.2 Pens for · against3 · 0

D24 Nov 24A · Genoa2–22
L20 Sep 24H · Empoli0–21
L11 May 24A · AC Milan1–51
L8 Oct 23H · AS Roma1–42
D21 Feb 22H · Napoli1–11

Fiorentina5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W27 Oct 24H · AS Roma5–12
D25 Aug 24H · Venezia0–01
L13 Nov 22A · AC Milan1–24
L6 Nov 21A · Juventus0–14
L3 Oct 21H · Napoli1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.