Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cagliari20.0%fair odds 5.00
Draw23.8%fair odds 4.20
Inter56.2%fair odds 1.78
Expected goals1.02 – 1.84total 2.86
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Inter
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cagliari ↓ · Inter → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cagliari goals, columns Inter goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.85
- 0–110.0%10.00
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 0–29.7%10.27
- 0–06.3%15.88
- 1–36.1%16.44
- 0–36.0%16.70
- 2–15.4%18.36
- 1–05.2%19.05
- 2–25.0%19.91
Winning margin
2.0%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 49.66
5.3%
Cagliari by 2
fair 18.91
12.7%
Cagliari by 1
fair 7.88
23.8%
Draw
fair 4.20
23.5%
Inter by 1
fair 4.25
17.4%
Inter by 2
fair 5.73
15.3%
Inter by 3+
fair 6.55
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Cagliari goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Inter goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari win | 20.0% | 20.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 24.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Inter win | 56.2% | 54.8% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 52.5% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.3% | 53.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 1.02 | 1.00 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Inter | 1.84 | 1.77 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cagliari win20.0%5.00
- Draw23.8%4.20
- Inter win56.2%1.78
- Double chance Cagliari or draw43.8%2.28
- Double chance Cagliari or Inter76.2%1.31
- Double chance Inter or draw80.0%1.25
- Draw no bet Cagliari26.2%3.81
- Draw no bet Inter73.8%1.36
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.5%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.18
- Under 1.521.5%4.64
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes54.3%1.84
- No45.7%2.19
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Cagliari win and yes10.5%9.55
- Draw and yes17.5%5.72
- Inter win and yes26.3%3.80
Team goals
- Cagliari over 0.563.8%1.57
- Cagliari over 1.527.0%3.70
- Cagliari over 2.58.3%12.02
- Inter over 0.584.2%1.19
- Inter over 1.555.0%1.82
- Inter over 2.528.1%3.56
- Cagliari clean sheet15.8%6.32
- Inter clean sheet36.2%2.76
- Cagliari win to nil9.5%10.51
- Inter win to nil29.9%3.34
Handicap
- Cagliari −1.57.3%13.69
- Cagliari −2.52.0%49.66
- Inter +1.592.7%1.08
- Inter +2.598.0%1.02
- Inter −1.532.7%3.06
- Cagliari +1.567.3%1.49
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored16
Favourite won68.8%
Avg chance given to result48.4%
1X2 Brier0.464
Over 2.5 called right56.3%
BTTS called right43.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.3% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 58.1% | 0.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 61.4% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 73.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 88.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 16 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4750 | 0.5077 |
| Avg chance given to result | 48.4% | 46.4% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 16 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.