Cagliari vs Inter – 30 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 19:45 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari 12th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–1Full time

Inter 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were slight favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Cagliari had 8 days of rest, Inter 8.1 and had to travel 693 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel693 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Cagliari21%

Draw23%

Inter57%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.84

Cagliari15%

Draw20%

Inter65%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.06

Cagliari21%

Draw23%

Inter57%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.84

Cagliari16%

Draw20%

Inter64%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.07

Cagliari21%

Draw23%

Inter55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.77

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

27°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 54%

Warm

Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 73

Team strength

Cagliari

Inter

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

31 AttackIn forecast 91

31 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Inter

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +1.24

60% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 13.30

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

29% On target shareContext 39%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

65% Box shareContext 78%

8% ConversionContext 21%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.70 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.90 BlocksContext 3.10

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

74% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

381 PassesContext 545

315 Accurate passesContext 483

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.01

9.90 FoulsContext 10.90

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari W

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,254 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W22 AugA · Parma1–01.2 xPts

Inter W

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel693 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 57 · 3 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

W22 AugH · Monza4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug	8.1Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	693 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,254 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 15J. Rodríguez 14A. Deiola 2Zé Pedro

6H. Winks 4Alessandro Romano

10J. Fazzini 70D. Maldini 8M. Adopo

31Paul Mendy

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Josep Martínez(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 28B. Pavard

32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 10L. Martínez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Inter+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home No home games yet this season.

Inter · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Cagliari wins1 draws7 Inter wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.75 Over 2.575% Both scored38% Clean sheets0% · 63%

17 Apr 2026Inter3–0Cagliari
27 Sep 2025Cagliari0–2Inter
12 Apr 2025Inter3–1Cagliari
28 Dec 2024Cagliari0–3Inter
14 Apr 2024Inter2–2Cagliari
28 Aug 2023Cagliari0–2Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	4.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	5.00	2.86
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	54%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Cagliari	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.20	4.10	2.86
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	8.75
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	4.00	3.38
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Cagliari	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.80
Corners conceded	4.10	3.40
Match total	8.30	8.20	8.75
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.10	1.70
Match total	2.30	3.50	3.38
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 3.38

Red cards0.29league 0.00

Cards 5+34%league 19%

Fouls24.1league 24.1

Penalties0.15league 0.00

Home wins37%league 38%

Cagliari4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D7 Mar 25H · Genoa1–12
D9 Nov 24H · AC Milan3–30
L31 Aug 24A · Lecce0–13
L28 Aug 23H · Inter0–21

Inter9 with this referee

Record6-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 0

W28 Feb 26H · Genoa2–02
L27 Apr 25H · AS Roma0–11
W6 Jan 24H · Verona2–10
W28 Aug 23A · Cagliari2–01
W3 Jun 23A · Torino1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.