Cagliari vs Lecce – 16 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 25 Mon, Feb 16 · 19:45 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari 13th · 28 pts · 24 played LWWWL

0–2Full time

Lecce 18th · 21 pts · 24 played LLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Cagliari were slight favourites.

Cagliari were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. Cagliari had 7 days of rest, Lecce 8.2 and had to travel 783 km.

Away travel783 kmRest days7 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Cagliari47%

Draw29%

Lecce24%

Expected goals 1.37 – 0.90

Cagliari51%

Draw25%

Lecce23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.06

Cagliari47%

Draw29%

Lecce24%

Expected goals 1.37 – 0.89

Cagliari40%

Draw30%

Lecce30%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.01

Cagliari49%

Draw27%

Lecce25%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.02

Over 2.5 40% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 37

Team strength

Cagliari

Lecce

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

31 AttackIn forecast 36

31 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Lecce

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

67% Scored inContext 46%

21% Clean sheetsContext 29%

9.83 ShotsContext 9.92

3.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.55

35% On target shareContext 24%

6.14 Shots in the boxContext 5.48

58% Box shareContext 53%

12% ConversionContext 6%

2.18 OffsidesContext 1.44

13.17 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.96 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.86 BlocksContext 3.58

3.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

73% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

383 PassesContext 336

311 Accurate passesContext 255

81% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.72

14.58 FoulsContext 12.38

14.58 Fouls sufferedContext 13.71

2.42 Yellow cardsContext 1.79

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.73

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

70% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.10 ShotsContext 10.70

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.11

33% On target shareContext 18%

5.78 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

55% Box shareContext 48%

14% ConversionContext 5%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.00 Shots allowedContext 12.90

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 4.20

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

71% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 42%

412 PassesContext 328

340 Accurate passesContext 246

83% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.68

13.80 FoulsContext 12.00

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km824 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel783 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Feb	8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	783 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	824 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1E. Caprile(G)

3Riyad Idrissi 33A. Obert 26Y. Mina 32Zé Pedro 28G. Zappa

94S. Esposito 25I. Sulemana 8M. Adopo 2M. Palestra

30L. Pavoletti

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani 16O. Gandelman

23R. Sottil 99W. Cheddira 50S. Pierotti

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lecce+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home 1.36points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-4
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.18

Lecce · Away 0.73points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-7
Scored: 0.55
Conceded: 1.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Cagliari	Lecce
AS Roma	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Verona	W 4–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fiorentina	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Juventus	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Genoa	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Cremonese	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Torino	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Pisa	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Atalanta	L 1–2 A	L 1–4 A
Como	D 0–0 A	L 0–3 H
Lazio	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Sassuolo	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 H
Bologna	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A
Inter	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Parma	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Napoli	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Points	25 of 69 · 1.09 per game	21 of 69 · 0.91 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Cagliari wins2 draws1 Lecce wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

19 Sep 2025Lecce1–2Cagliari
19 Jan 2025Cagliari4–1Lecce
31 Aug 2024Lecce1–0Cagliari
5 May 2024Cagliari1–1Lecce
6 Jan 2024Lecce1–1Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	0.63
Conceded per game	1.38	1.29
Match goals	2.54	1.92	2.27
Over 1.5	79%	54%
Over 2.5	50%	33%	40%
Over 3.5	21%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	45%
Clean sheets	21%	29%
Failed to score	33%	54%
Games	24	24

	Cagliari	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	2.80	1.70	2.27
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.59	4.61
Corners conceded	5.14	5.22
Match total	8.73	9.83	8.76
Over 8.5	50% 11/22	78% 18/23
Over 9.5	27% 6/22	65% 15/23
Over 10.5	18% 4/22	43% 10/23
Cards
Cards	2.42	1.88
Opponent cards	1.96	1.63
Match total	4.38	3.51	3.99
Over 3.5	67% 16/24	50% 12/24
Over 4.5	42% 10/24	29% 7/24

	Cagliari	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	4.11
Corners conceded	6.30	5.22
Match total	9.40	9.33	8.76
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	1.40
Match total	4.00	3.60	3.99
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.05league 3.81

Red cards0.03league 0.19

Cards 5+16%league 37%

Fouls22.7league 25.4

Penalties0.27league 0.32

Home wins57%league 38%

Cagliari2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L3 May 25H · Udinese1–21
L24 Sep 23A · Atalanta0–22

Lecce1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L25 Oct 25A · Udinese2–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.