Celje vs Omonia Nicosia – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 Stadion Z’dežele, Celje

Celje 31st · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–3Full time

Omonia Nicosia 16th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Omonia Nicosia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celje. Celje had 28.9 days of rest, Omonia Nicosia 29 and had to travel 1,951 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,951 kmRest days28.9 · 29Matches / 14d0 · 0

Celje40%

Draw25%

Omonia Nicosia36%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.42

Celje36%

Draw26%

Omonia Nicosia38%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Celje39%

Draw25%

Omonia Nicosia36%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.43

Celje33%

Draw24%

Omonia Nicosia43%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.59

Celje40%

Draw25%

Omonia Nicosia36%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.43

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Celje)

14°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 83%

Referee · AzerbaijanElcin Masiyev

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 7

Team strength

Celje

Omonia Nicosia

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

17 AttackIn forecast 34

19 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celje

Attack—

Defense risk—

Omonia Nicosia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celje

Omonia Nicosia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.67 ShotsContext 13.00

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

43% On target shareContext 33%

6.17 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

62% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 4%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.33

16.33 Shots allowedContext 12.75

6.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.43 BlocksContext 3.67

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

73% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

506 PassesContext 412

433 Accurate passesContext 338

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.58

14.00 FoulsContext 9.14

13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 14.71

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celje L

Rest28.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 0 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected

L16 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–20.3 xPts

Omonia Nicosia W

Rest29 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,951 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W16 SepH · Celta Vigo1–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celje	Omonia Nicosia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	28.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep	29UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,951 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celje Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Ž. Leban(G)

11M. Avdyli 6A. Tutyškinas 15Žan Žužek 44Ł. Bejger

14L. Tičić 19M. Zabukovnik 13P. Daniel 91Y. Dukuly

9B. Kramer 10S. Sešlar

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Omonia Nicosia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40Fabiano(G)

29J. Balkovec 37Ľ. Šatka 5S. Coulibaly 93J. Duverne

14M. Marić 22M. Tankovic 74P. Andreou

7J. Montnor 99L. Diony 11Ewandro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celje

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Pišek

Omonia Nicosia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −3.2% · Defence line −7.0% of weighted minutes

MID L. Brouwers Rotation 6.90 Att −1.9% Def −1.1%
DEF A. Christou Rotation — Def −2.3%
DEF F. Kitsos Rotation 7.43 Def −1.6%
MID C. Eiting Rotation 6.45 Att −1.3% Def −0.8%
DEF M. Odubajo Rotation 6.45 Def −1.2%

Total impact vs full squads

Celje+0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Omonia Nicosia-0.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Celje · Home No home games yet this season.

Omonia Nicosia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celje	Omonia Nicosia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.94
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Celje	Omonia Nicosia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.14
Conceded per game	1.57	0.71
Match goals	2.86	1.86	2.94
Over 1.5	100%	29%
Over 2.5	43%	14%	56%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	71%	29%	59%
Clean sheets	14%	43%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celje	Omonia Nicosia	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.00
Corners conceded	6.00	9.00
Match total	8.00	12.00	10.69
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	1.00
Match total	0.00	1.00	3.38
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Celje	Omonia Nicosia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	3.57
Corners conceded	7.17	4.57
Match total	12.34	8.14	10.69
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.40
Opponent cards	1.70	2.80
Match total	4.30	5.20	3.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Elcin Masiyev Azerbaijan · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.86league 3.28

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+14%league 39%

Fouls24.6league 25.2

Penalties0.00league 0.17

Home wins43%league 44%

Celje

No previous matches with this referee.

Omonia Nicosia

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.