Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Celta Vigo60.1%fair odds 1.66
Draw24.2%fair odds 4.14
Alaves15.7%fair odds 6.37
Expected goals1.76 – 0.78total 2.55
Likeliest score1–013.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celta Vigo ↓ · Alaves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celta Vigo goals, columns Alaves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–013.2%7.56
- 2–012.2%8.22
- 1–111.4%8.77
- 2–19.5%10.48
- 0–08.4%11.89
- 3–07.2%13.99
- 3–15.6%17.84
- 0–15.6%17.96
- 1–24.2%23.56
- 2–23.7%26.73
Winning margin
16.0%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 6.24
18.8%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 5.31
25.2%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 3.96
24.2%
Draw
fair 4.14
10.9%
Alaves by 1
fair 9.16
3.7%
Alaves by 2
fair 26.83
1.1%
Alaves by 3+
fair 93.57
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Celta Vigo goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
Alaves goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 60.1% | 61.6% | -1.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 22.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Alaves win | 15.7% | 15.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 51.3% | -4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.6% | 48.7% | -3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.76 | 1.89 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Alaves | 0.78 | 0.84 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celta Vigo win60.1%1.66
- Draw24.2%4.14
- Alaves win15.7%6.37
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw84.3%1.19
- Double chance Celta Vigo or Alaves75.8%1.32
- Double chance Alaves or draw39.9%2.51
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo79.3%1.26
- Draw no bet Alaves20.7%4.83
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.572.8%1.37
- Over 2.546.8%2.14
- Over 3.525.2%3.96
- Over 4.511.5%8.68
- Under 1.527.2%3.68
- Under 2.553.2%1.88
- Under 3.574.8%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes45.6%2.19
- No54.4%1.84
- Yes and over 2.534.2%2.92
- Celta Vigo win and yes22.9%4.37
- Draw and yes15.8%6.34
- Alaves win and yes7.0%14.37
Team goals
- Celta Vigo over 0.582.8%1.21
- Celta Vigo over 1.552.6%1.90
- Celta Vigo over 2.525.9%3.85
- Alaves over 0.554.3%1.84
- Alaves over 1.518.6%5.39
- Alaves over 2.54.5%22.14
- Celta Vigo clean sheet45.7%2.19
- Alaves clean sheet17.2%5.83
- Celta Vigo win to nil37.2%2.68
- Alaves win to nil8.8%11.43
Handicap
- Celta Vigo −1.534.9%2.87
- Celta Vigo −2.516.0%6.24
- Alaves +1.565.1%1.54
- Alaves +2.584.0%1.19
- Alaves −1.54.8%20.85
- Celta Vigo +1.595.2%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored287
Favourite won54.4%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 54 | 37.9% | 37.0% |
| 40–50% | 116 | 44.4% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.8% | 59.6% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 64.1% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 74.6% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 82.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 227 of 287 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5683 | 0.5616 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 55.1% | 55.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 227 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 287 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.