Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were clear favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 2.9 days of rest, Alaves 8.8 and had to travel 500 km.
Away travel500 kmRest days2.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Celta Vigo60%
Draw24%
Alaves16%
Celta Vigo60%
Draw23%
Alaves17%
Celta Vigo61%
Draw24%
Alaves15%
Celta Vigo53%
Draw27%
Alaves20%
Celta Vigo62%
Draw23%
Alaves16%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 15
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Alaves
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
48
61
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoAlaves
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
86%
Scored inContext
64%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.43
ShotsContext
11.61
3.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.04
38%
On target shareContext
32%
6.61
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
62%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.71
Shots allowedContext
12.43
4.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.62
BlocksContext
4.15
3.28
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
76%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
488
PassesContext
421
421
Accurate passesContext
341
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.07
FoulsContext
15.14
11.54
Fouls sufferedContext
13.46
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
0.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
45%
On target shareContext
33%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
69%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.25
BlocksContext
4.80
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
70%
Save rateContext
59%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
483
PassesContext
421
423
Accurate passesContext
339
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.80
FoulsContext
15.10
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,498 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Alaves
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel500 km843 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar | 8.8La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 500 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,498 km | 843 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 7 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
24Carlos Domínguez
4J. Aidoo
32Javi Rodríguez
14Alvaro Núñez
3Óscar Mingueza
22Hugo Sotelo
39Jones El-Abdellaoui
23Hugo Álvarez
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Ángel Pérez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alaves+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.21
Alaves · Away
0.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-10
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Valencia | W 4–1 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 38 of 81 · 1.41 per game | 28 of 81 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Celta Vigo wins2 draws1 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.78 – 0.89
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 11%
- 22 Nov 2025Alaves0–1Celta Vigo
- 27 Jan 2025Alaves1–1Celta Vigo
- 16 Aug 2024Celta Vigo2–1Alaves
- 27 Apr 2024Alaves3–0Celta Vigo
- 28 Sep 2023Celta Vigo1–1Alaves
- 7 May 2022Celta Vigo4–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 2.29 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 43% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 57% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 5.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 9.96 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 13/28 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 9/28 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.61 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.53 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.00 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.93league 4.22
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+27%league 47%
Fouls26.1league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.37
Home wins73%league 48%
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
Alaves2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Jan 26A · Espanyol2–11
- W16 Aug 25H · Levante2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo27 games · scored 36 · conceded 31
2
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
8
3
46-60
4
8
61-75
12
7
76-90
Alaves28 games · scored 26 · conceded 38
6
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
7
61-75
6
12
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
