Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Celta Vigo
11th · 19 pts · 15 played
WLWLW
2–0Full time
Athletic Club
7th · 23 pts · 16 played
WLWLW
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Celta Vigo had 2.8 days of rest, Athletic Club 7.8 and had to travel 487 km.
Away travel487 kmRest days2.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Celta Vigo41%
Draw28%
Athletic Club31%
Celta Vigo40%
Draw27%
Athletic Club33%
Celta Vigo40%
Draw28%
Athletic Club32%
Celta Vigo34%
Draw28%
Athletic Club38%
Celta Vigo41%
Draw27%
Athletic Club32%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 122
Team strength
Celta VigoAthletic Club
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
36
AttackIn forecast
51
61
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoAthletic Club
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
87%
Scored inContext
56%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.69
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
32%
6.47
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
58%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.55
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.33
Shots allowedContext
9.56
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.07
BlocksContext
2.77
3.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
77%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
500
PassesContext
403
431
Accurate passesContext
326
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.73
FoulsContext
11.94
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.31
1.87
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
90%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.90
ShotsContext
11.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
31%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
59%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
5%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.30
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.22
BlocksContext
2.78
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
70%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
487
PassesContext
343
420
Accurate passesContext
261
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.40
FoulsContext
13.80
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Athletic Club
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel487 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 487 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 930 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
12Manu Fernández
3Óscar Mingueza
16Miguel Román
22Hugo Sotelo
17Javi Rueda
9Ferran Jutglà
10Iago Aspas
19W. Swedberg
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
7Álex Berenguer
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Athletic Club-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
0.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-5-3
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.50
Athletic Club · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 0–4 A |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Elche | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 16 of 39 · 1.23 per game | 17 of 39 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Celta Vigo wins1 draws5 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.30
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 19 Jan 2025Celta Vigo1–2Athletic Club
- 22 Sep 2024Athletic Club3–1Celta Vigo
- 15 May 2024Celta Vigo2–1Athletic Club
- 10 Nov 2023Athletic Club4–3Celta Vigo
- 20 May 2023Athletic Club2–1Celta Vigo
- 29 Jan 2023Celta Vigo1–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 2.19 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 31% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 44% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.75 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.87 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.07 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.55 | 8.80 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.60 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.15league 4.11
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 46%
Fouls25.1league 24.7
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins38%league 48%
Celta Vigo11 with this referee
Record2-4-5
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25A · Osasuna3–24
- L19 Oct 24H · Real Madrid1–22
- D31 Mar 24H · Rayo Vallecano0–03
- L11 Feb 24A · Getafe2–32
- D4 Nov 23H · Sevilla1–12
Athletic Club11 with this referee
Record2-5-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D9 Mar 25H · Mallorca1–11
- D26 Jan 25H · Leganes0–01
- L31 Aug 24H · Atletico Madrid0–13
- D3 Mar 24H · Barcelona0–03
- W2 Dec 23H · Rayo Vallecano4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo15 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Athletic Club16 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
