Celta Vigo vs Juventus – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 27th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–2Full time

Juventus 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus were without M. Locatelli and K. Yıldız. Celta Vigo had 4.3 days of rest, Juventus 4 and had to travel 1,355 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,355 kmRest days4.3 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1

Celta Vigo29%

Draw26%

Juventus45%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.48

Celta Vigo35%

Draw26%

Juventus39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.38

Celta Vigo29%

Draw26%

Juventus46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.51

Celta Vigo23%

Draw24%

Juventus53%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.66

Celta Vigo29%

Draw26%

Juventus44%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.44

Over 2.5 49% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

16°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 89%

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 73

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Juventus

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

36 AttackIn forecast 57

61 DefenceIn forecast 76

39 Form indexContext 55

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack−14%

Defense risk+9%

Juventus

Attack−12%

Defense risk−12%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Juventus

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.58

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

50% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.90 ShotsContext 17.40

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

31% On target shareContext 36%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

50% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.56

12.00 Shots allowedContext 8.30

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

2.80 BlocksContext 2.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

78% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 58%

516 PassesContext 518

453 Accurate passesContext 453

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.10 FoulsContext 13.40

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo DDLWD

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,622 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 39 · 6 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts
D13 SepH · Malaga1–11.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Getafe1–11.1 xPts

Juventus DLWWD

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,355 km1,320 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 55 · 8 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts
L13 SepA · Sassuolo2–31.6 xPts
D6 SepH · AC Milan1–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct	4Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,355 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,622 km	1,320 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

3Marcos Alonso 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 14Aleix Febas 6I. Moriba 17Javi Rueda

19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 23Hugo Álvarez

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

25G. Vicario(G)

6L. Kelly 4F. Gatti 15P. Kalulu

20A. Cambiaso 8T. Koopmeiners 29P. Sarr 22W. McKennie

17Kerim Alajbegović 7Francisco Conceição

27N. Woltemade

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −32.8% · Defence line −7.3% of weighted minutes

DEF C. Starfelt Rotation 6.90 Def −4.8%
MID Miguel Román Rotation 6.89 Att −6.2% Def −2.4%
ATT Borja Iglesias Rotation 6.58 Att −11.4%
ATT Pablo Durán Rotation 6.64 Att −9.4%
ATT Jones El-Abdellaoui Rotation 6.57 Att −5.6%
MID Andrés Antañón Depth 6.20 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%

Juventus Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −33.6% · Defence line −12.1% of weighted minutes

MID M. Locatelli Core 7.59 Att −9.3% Def −7.1%
ATT K. Yıldız Core 7.23 Att −16.1%
MID K. Thuram Starter 6.95 Att −4.6% Def −3.5%
ATT J. Boga Rotation 6.92 Att −3.0%
DEF K. Grabara Rotation 7.56 Def −1.0%
MID E. Zhegrova Rotation 6.70 Att −0.5% Def −0.4%

+2 more with impact, 2 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Durmiši, J. Ekhator

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.2 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Juventus-0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home No home games yet this season.

Juventus · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	5.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	5.00	2.61
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Celta Vigo	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.70
Conceded per game	0.70	0.90
Match goals	1.60	2.60	2.61
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	—
Corners conceded	3.00	—
Match total	12.00	—	9.67
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	—
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	0.00	1.00
Match total	1.00	2.00	3.71
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Celta Vigo	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	7.78
Corners conceded	4.40	2.56
Match total	8.20	10.34	9.67
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	3.60	3.40	3.71
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.41league 3.58

Red cards0.25league 0.12

Cards 5+32%league 38%

Fouls22.0league 24.7

Penalties0.16league 0.23

Home wins47%league 38%

Celta Vigo1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W23 Oct 25H · Nice2–11

Juventus

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.