Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 57). Celta Vigo had 4.1 days of rest, Lille 6 and had to travel 1,301 km.
Away travel1,301 kmRest days4.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Celta Vigo49%
Draw26%
Lille26%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw26%
Lille25%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw26%
Lille26%
Celta Vigo41%
Draw27%
Lille32%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw26%
Lille25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 96
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Lille
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
36
AttackIn forecast
42
61
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoLille
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.71
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.33
ShotsContext
13.83
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
35%
On target shareContext
39%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
67%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.83
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.33
BlocksContext
2.75
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
508
PassesContext
534
442
Accurate passesContext
456
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.50
FoulsContext
9.33
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.20
ShotsContext
9.70
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
50%
On target shareContext
42%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
68%
Box shareContext
64%
20%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.56
BlocksContext
2.89
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
79%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
448
PassesContext
477
378
Accurate passesContext
408
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.50
FoulsContext
9.60
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.60
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,301 km409 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,301 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,176 km | 409 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
3Óscar Mingueza
16Miguel Román
22Hugo Sotelo
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
7Borja Iglesias
10Iago Aspas
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
27Félix Correia
6N. Bentaleb
17N. Mukau
14M. Broholm
10H. Haraldsson
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lille-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Lille · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| PAOK | W 3–1 H | L 3–4 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.83 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Celta Vigo | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.50 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.17 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Celta Vigo | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.89 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 7.45 | 8.00 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 4.12
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls22.1league 24.2
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins54%league 49%
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
LilleNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo6 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
76-90
Lille6 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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