Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 3 days of rest, Mallorca 6.9 and had to travel 1,000 km.
Away travel1,000 kmRest days3 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Celta Vigo56%
Draw25%
Mallorca18%
Celta Vigo54%
Draw25%
Mallorca21%
Celta Vigo57%
Draw25%
Mallorca18%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw27%
Mallorca23%
Celta Vigo58%
Draw24%
Mallorca19%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 11
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Mallorca
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
50
61
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoMallorca
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
83%
Scored inContext
75%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.50
ShotsContext
9.92
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
37%
On target shareContext
39%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.35
61%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.61
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.75
Shots allowedContext
14.54
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.09
3.39
BlocksContext
4.54
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.81
76%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
489
PassesContext
370
421
Accurate passesContext
294
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.33
FoulsContext
11.00
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.40
ShotsContext
9.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
47%
On target shareContext
41%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
63%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.70
Shots allowedContext
15.30
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.80
BlocksContext
5.30
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
441
PassesContext
358
376
Accurate passesContext
283
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.50
FoulsContext
11.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km7,061 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Mallorca
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,000 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,000 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 7,061 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
4J. Aidoo
32Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
15M. Vecino
16Miguel Román
17Javi Rueda
18Pablo Durán
9Ferran Jutglà
8Fer López
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
3Toni Lato
24M. Valjent
21Raíllo
23Pablo Maffeo
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
17J. Virgili
10Darder
6Antonio Sánchez
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Mallorca+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-4
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.25
Mallorca · Away
0.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-9
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Valencia | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Madrid | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 33 of 69 · 1.43 per game | 23 of 69 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Celta Vigo wins3 draws3 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.00
Over 2.522%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 44%
- 23 Aug 2025Mallorca1–1Celta Vigo
- 5 Apr 2025Mallorca1–2Celta Vigo
- 6 Dec 2024Celta Vigo2–0Mallorca
- 13 Jan 2024Mallorca1–1Celta Vigo
- 16 Sep 2023Celta Vigo0–1Mallorca
- 17 Apr 2023Celta Vigo0–1Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 2.83 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 67% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 25% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Celta Vigo | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 6.91 | |
| Match total | 8.58 | 10.39 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 11/24 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 6/24 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.54 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.42 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 14/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Celta Vigo | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 10.80 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 4.16
Red cards0.27league 0.27
Cards 5+45%league 46%
Fouls23.7league 24.6
Penalties0.18league 0.37
Home wins45%league 47%
Celta Vigo1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Aug 25A · Mallorca1–13
Mallorca3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 5.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W17 Jan 26H · Athletic Club3–21
- L22 Nov 25A · Villarreal1–21
- D23 Aug 25H · Celta Vigo1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo23 games · scored 30 · conceded 27
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
8
61-75
10
6
76-90
Mallorca24 games · scored 29 · conceded 39
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
3
10
31-45
1
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
9
9
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
6
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
