Celta Vigo vs PAOK – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 28th · 0 pts · 1 played L

3–1Full time

PAOK 25th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 4.2 days of rest, PAOK 8.1 and had to travel 2,630 km.

Away travel2,630 kmRest days4.2 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Celta Vigo45%

Draw26%

PAOK29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.26

Celta Vigo46%

Draw26%

PAOK27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Celta Vigo46%

Draw26%

PAOK28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.22

Celta Vigo38%

Draw26%

PAOK36%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.42

Celta Vigo45%

Draw26%

PAOK28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.19

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

RefereeIgor Pajač

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 16

Team strength

Celta Vigo

PAOK

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

36 AttackIn forecast 45

61 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

PAOK

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

PAOK

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.07 xGVia Att/Def —

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 70%

12.60 ShotsContext 17.75

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.13

33% On target shareContext 35%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.83

63% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.30 Shots allowedContext 6.88

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13

3.20 BlocksContext 1.83

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

76% Save rateContext 80%

54% PossessionIn forecast 60%

502 PassesContext 525

435 Accurate passesContext 454

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.80 FoulsContext 12.38

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.63

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,689 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PAOK

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,630 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	PAOK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep	8.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,630 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,689 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 12Manu Fernández

3Óscar Mingueza 6I. Moriba 14Damián Rodríguez 17Javi Rueda

19W. Swedberg 7Borja Iglesias 10Iago Aspas

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

PAOK Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pavlenka(G)

21A. Baba 5G. Michailidis 4A. Vogliacco 23Joan Sastre

27M. Ozdoev 22A. Bianco

65G. Konstantelias 2M. Camara 77K. Despodov

7G. Giakoumakis

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PAOK Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo-0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
PAOK+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home No home games yet this season.

PAOK · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	0.00	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	0.00
Conceded per game	1.38	0.00
Match goals	2.25	0.00	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	25%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	88%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	13%	100%
Games	8	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	9.00
Corners conceded	9.00	3.00
Match total	11.00	12.00	9.52
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	6.25
Corners conceded	4.20	2.75
Match total	10.00	9.00	9.52
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	3.60
Match total	4.40	5.60	4.37
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Igor Pajač 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.44league 4.19

Red cards0.13league 0.19

Cards 5+31%league 41%

Fouls24.1league 26.3

Penalties0.31league 0.30

Home wins56%league 37%

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

PAOK

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.