Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Celta Vigo had 6.1 days of rest, Sevilla 6.1 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Celta Vigo41%
Draw29%
Sevilla30%
Celta Vigo52%
Draw25%
Sevilla23%
Celta Vigo41%
Draw30%
Sevilla30%
Celta Vigo34%
Draw30%
Sevilla36%
Celta Vigo41%
Draw28%
Sevilla30%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
RefereeF. Maeso
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Sevilla
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
36
AttackIn forecast
48
61
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoSevilla
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
84%
Scored inContext
76%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
9.68
ShotsContext
11.32
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.77
41%
On target shareContext
32%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.16
63%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.74
OffsidesContext
3.03
12.38
Shots allowedContext
10.14
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.40
BlocksContext
3.23
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.97
72%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
487
PassesContext
398
419
Accurate passesContext
323
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.32
FoulsContext
14.32
11.84
Fouls sufferedContext
12.41
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.30
ShotsContext
12.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
44%
On target shareContext
25%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
64%
Box shareContext
57%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.80
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.90
BlocksContext
2.67
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
63%
Save rateContext
57%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
474
PassesContext
347
405
Accurate passesContext
271
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.90
FoulsContext
13.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km974 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel588 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 974 km | 1,167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90.9 | 84 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
29Yoel Lago
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Fer López
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
7Borja Iglesias
10Iago Aspas
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
13Ø. Nyland(G)
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
3César Azpilicueta
2J. Carmona Navarro
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
14Peque Fernández
36Oso
7Isaac Romero
10A. Sánchez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Sevilla+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.11points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-8
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.56
Sevilla · Away
1.00points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-10
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Levante | L 2–3 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 AL 2–4 H | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–3 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Valencia | W 3–2 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 3–4 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Girona | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 48 of 108 · 1.33 per game | 43 of 108 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Celta Vigo wins4 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 12 Jan 2026Sevilla0–1Celta Vigo
- 10 May 2025Celta Vigo3–2Sevilla
- 14 Dec 2024Sevilla1–0Celta Vigo
- 17 Mar 2024Sevilla1–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Nov 2023Celta Vigo1–1Sevilla
- 7 Apr 2023Sevilla2–2Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.84 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 57% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 59% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 24% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Celta Vigo | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.97 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.41 | 9.33 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 14/34 | 56% 20/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 10/34 | 47% 17/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 8/34 | 33% 12/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 5.05 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 21/37 | 70% 26/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 13/37 | 54% 20/37 | |
| Celta Vigo | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.00 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo36 games · scored 50 · conceded 48
5
7
0-15
7
3
16-30
7
11
31-45
11
7
46-60
6
10
61-75
14
10
76-90
Sevilla37 games · scored 46 · conceded 59
5
6
0-15
5
7
16-30
9
14
31-45
8
11
46-60
7
6
61-75
12
15
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
