Celta Vigo vs Valencia – 3 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 3 · 13:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 7th · 23 pts · 17 played WLWWD

4–1Full time

Valencia 17th · 16 pts · 17 played WDDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Valencia. Celta Vigo had 14 days of rest, Valencia 14.7 and had to travel 765 km.

Away travel765 kmRest days14 · 14.7Matches / 14d1 · 0

Celta Vigo50%

Draw26%

Valencia24%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.02

Celta Vigo50%

Draw26%

Valencia25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Celta Vigo49%

Draw27%

Valencia25%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.02

Celta Vigo43%

Draw28%

Valencia30%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.14

Celta Vigo51%

Draw25%

Valencia24%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.08

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 41

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Valencia

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

36 AttackIn forecast 39

61 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Valencia

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.94

1.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

82% Scored inContext 71%

24% Clean sheetsContext 24%

10.00 ShotsContext 10.71

3.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.82

35% On target shareContext 26%

6.24 Shots in the boxContext 6.94

61% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.54 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.29 Shots allowedContext 12.24

4.47 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.59

3.19 BlocksContext 3.27

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

78% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

493 PassesContext 415

423 Accurate passesContext 342

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.35 FoulsContext 11.59

11.82 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.40 ShotsContext 11.90

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

41% On target shareContext 24%

5.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

64% Box shareContext 61%

18% ConversionContext 6%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.44 BlocksContext 2.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

73% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

481 PassesContext 439

410 Accurate passesContext 367

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.80 FoulsContext 12.10

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km532 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest14.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel765 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec	14.7La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	765 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	532 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9.3	7.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 4J. Aidoo 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 16Miguel Román 6I. Moriba 3Óscar Mingueza

19W. Swedberg 7Borja Iglesias 15Bryan Zaragoza

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

3-5-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

3Copete 4M. Diakhaby 20D. Foulquier

21Jesús Vázquez 10André Almeida 18Pepelu 8Javi Guerra 12Thierry Correia

15L. Beltrán 9Hugo Duro

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+1.4 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Valencia-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.89points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 1-5-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Valencia · Away 0.38points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-5
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Valencia
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Real Madrid	W 2–0 A	L 0–4 A
Espanyol	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
Alaves	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Barcelona	L 2–4 H	L 0–6 A
Levante	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Osasuna	W 3–2 A	L 0–1 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Girona	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Villarreal	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Getafe	L 0–2 H	W 3–0 H
Points	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game	15 of 48 · 0.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Celta Vigo wins2 draws6 Valencia wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.70 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 40%

2 Feb 2025Valencia2–1Celta Vigo
23 Aug 2024Celta Vigo3–1Valencia
26 May 2024Celta Vigo2–2Valencia
25 Nov 2023Valencia0–0Celta Vigo
14 May 2023Celta Vigo1–2Valencia
17 Sep 2022Valencia3–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	0.94
Conceded per game	1.12	1.53
Match goals	2.29	2.47	2.61
Over 1.5	82%	82%
Over 2.5	24%	41%	48%
Over 3.5	12%	18%
Both teams scored	65%	53%	52%
Clean sheets	24%	24%
Failed to score	18%	29%
Games	17	17

	Celta Vigo	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.40
Match goals	2.60	2.10	2.61
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	48%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.94	5.43
Corners conceded	4.71	5.21
Match total	8.65	10.64	9.60
Over 8.5	47% 8/17	64% 9/14
Over 9.5	29% 5/17	57% 8/14
Over 10.5	24% 4/17	57% 8/14
Cards
Cards	1.76	1.76
Opponent cards	2.65	2.41
Match total	4.41	4.17	4.36
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	59% 10/17
Over 4.5	47% 8/17	47% 8/17

	Celta Vigo	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	2.89	5.71
Corners conceded	4.11	4.86
Match total	7.00	10.57	9.60
Over 8.5	11% 1/9	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	0% 0/9	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	3.00
Match total	3.80	4.70	4.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 4.11

Red cards0.22league 0.27

Cards 5+34%league 45%

Fouls22.0league 24.5

Penalties0.24league 0.33

Home wins49%league 47%

Celta Vigo1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W1 Sep 23A · Almeria3–21

Valencia5 with this referee

Record1-0-4 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L30 Sep 25H · Oviedo1–21
W3 May 25A · Las Palmas3–21
L29 Apr 24A · Barcelona2–41
L28 Jan 24A · Atletico Madrid0–20
L1 Oct 23A · Real Betis0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.