Celta Vigo vs Villarreal – 31 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 31 · 16:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 17th · 2 pts · 3 played LDD

1–1Full time

Villarreal 2nd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 54). Celta Vigo had 3.8 days of rest, Villarreal 6.9 and had to travel 766 km.

Away travel766 kmRest days3.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 1

Celta Vigo30%

Draw28%

Villarreal42%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.41

Celta Vigo30%

Draw27%

Villarreal43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Celta Vigo30%

Draw28%

Villarreal42%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.41

Celta Vigo24%

Draw26%

Villarreal50%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.58

Celta Vigo30%

Draw27%

Villarreal43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.60
Matches 5

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Villarreal

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

36 AttackIn forecast 76

61 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Villarreal

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00

0.67 xGVia Att/Def 2.45

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.53

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +1.05

67% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 100%

10.33 ShotsContext 22.00

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.50

32% On target shareContext 39%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 15.00

55% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 16%

2.67 OffsidesContext —

9.67 Shots allowedContext 5.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.67 BlocksContext —

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

57% Save rateContext 83%

55% PossessionIn forecast 60%

495 PassesContext 589

434 Accurate passesContext 536

88% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.50

12.67 FoulsContext 9.00

12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 2 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.72

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.00 ShotsContext 14.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

42% On target shareContext 37%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 12.13

63% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.70

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.67 BlocksContext 3.75

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

67% Save rateContext 78%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

472 PassesContext 441

406 Accurate passesContext 381

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.18

11.90 FoulsContext 10.10

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,000 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Villarreal

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel766 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Aug	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	766 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,000 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	13.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

12Manu Fernández 24Carlos Domínguez 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 16Miguel Román 22Hugo Sotelo 17Javi Rueda

15Bryan Zaragoza 18Pablo Durán 10Iago Aspas

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

23Sergi Cardona 4Rafa Marín 8J. Foyth 15S. Mouriño

20Alberto Moleiro 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 17T. Buchanan

29E. Eyong 19N. Pépé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Villarreal+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Villarreal · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Celta Vigo wins2 draws5 Villarreal wins

Goals per game1.80 – 2.10 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 20%

23 Apr 2025Celta Vigo3–0Villarreal
26 Aug 2024Villarreal4–3Celta Vigo
5 May 2024Celta Vigo3–2Villarreal
20 Dec 2023Villarreal3–2Celta Vigo
30 Apr 2023Villarreal3–1Celta Vigo
13 Jan 2023Celta Vigo1–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	3.50
Conceded per game	1.33	0.00
Match goals	2.00	3.50	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	67%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	3	2

	Celta Vigo	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	3.50
Conceded per game	1.33	0.00
Match goals	2.00	3.50	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	67%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	3	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	8.50
Corners conceded	3.00	1.00
Match total	10.00	9.50	9.16
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.00
Opponent cards	2.33	2.50
Match total	4.66	3.50	3.60
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/2

	Celta Vigo	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.10
Corners conceded	4.40	5.10
Match total	9.60	10.20	9.16
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	4.40	3.30	3.60
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.20league 3.33

Red cards0.00league 0.22

Cards 5+20%league 26%

Fouls26.2league 23.6

Penalties0.60league 0.33

Home wins40%league 48%

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

Villarreal2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W24 Aug 25H · Girona5–01
W3 May 25H · Osasuna4–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.