Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sat, Feb 13 · 15:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel67 kmRest days9.8 · 76Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Weather (Glasgow)
Forecast from 29 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celtic and Heart Of Midlothian. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 5 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Heart Of Midlothian
+0.45
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.85xG against1.40
-
Trend
Heart Of Midlothian
60%
Both teams scored
Last 5 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Heart Of Midlothian
+0.45
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.85xG against1.40
-
Trend
Heart Of Midlothian
60%
Both teams scored
Last 5 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 5 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
74
AttackIn forecast
37
50
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeart Of Midlothian
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.22
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
89%
Scored inContext
100%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
20.33
ShotsContext
16.78
9.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
45%
On target shareContext
32%
15.11
Shots in the boxContext
11.78
75%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.78
Shots allowedContext
10.44
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.56
BlocksContext
3.63
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
83%
Save rateContext
50%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
604
PassesContext
455
533
Accurate passesContext
368
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.78
FoulsContext
12.56
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
14.78
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.00
ShotsContext
16.50
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
45%
On target shareContext
33%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.75
73%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.50
Shots allowedContext
10.38
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
5.20
BlocksContext
3.75
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
66%
Save rateContext
52%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
587
PassesContext
468
516
Accurate passesContext
382
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.70
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km37 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest76 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel67 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Heart Of Midlothian |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 3 Feb | 76Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 67 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 37 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Heart Of Midlothian
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Reus(G)
3S. Kingsley
5J. McCart
64M. Fagan-Walcott
23J. Altena
15J. McPake
6O. McEntee
78L. Mendy
7C. Miller
19Severin Sabri Guendouz
10Cláudio Braga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heart Of Midlothian
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Heart Of Midlothian · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 7.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Aberdeen | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Falkirk | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kilmarnock | W 5–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Dundee | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 18 · 3.00 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Celtic wins1 draws4 Heart Of Midlothian wins
Goals per game2.30 – 1.40
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 18 Oct 2026Celtic7–1Heart Of Midlothian
- 16 May 2026Celtic3–1Heart Of Midlothian
- 25 Jan 2026Heart Of Midlothian2–2Celtic
- 7 Dec 2025Celtic1–2Heart Of Midlothian
- 26 Oct 2025Heart Of Midlothian3–1Celtic
- 29 Mar 2025Celtic3–0Heart Of Midlothian
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 7.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 8.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 1 |
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 4.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 6.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 12.78 | 10.45 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 4.23 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Celtic | Heart Of Midlothian | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 13.30 | 10.22 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.90 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Heart Of Midlothian9 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Heart Of Midlothian10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
4
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.