Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 27). Cercle Brugge had 8 days of rest, Anderlecht 7.1 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw27%
Anderlecht44%
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw27%
Anderlecht44%
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw27%
Anderlecht44%
Cercle Brugge23%
Draw25%
Anderlecht52%
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw27%
Anderlecht44%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.63
- Matches 16
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Anderlecht
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
24
AttackIn forecast
37
28
DefenceIn forecast
52
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeAnderlecht
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.67
ShotsContext
13.60
5.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
43%
On target shareContext
35%
10.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
75%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.33
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.50
BlocksContext
2.89
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
63%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
312
PassesContext
490
207
Accurate passesContext
411
66%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.08
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.78
FoulsContext
10.80
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km139 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Jul | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 139 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
2I. Diakité
18P. Gerkens
28H. Van der Bruggen
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
6L. Agyekum
11A. Minda
9S. Ngoura
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
79A. Maamar
24E. Llansana
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
10Y. Verschaeren
20L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
No home games yet this season.
Anderlecht · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws2 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 27 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–0Cercle Brugge
- 5 Nov 2023Cercle Brugge0–3Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 11.00 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 6.00 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.67 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.31league 3.54
Red cards0.19league 0.08
Cards 5+25%league 31%
Fouls22.2league 23.1
Penalties0.63league 0.31
Home wins69%league 46%
Cercle BruggeNo previous matches with this referee.
Anderlecht1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D1 Feb 24A · KV Mechelen2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Anderlecht1 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
