Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
14th · 21 pts · 22 played
LWDWD
First leg1–1
0–4Full time
Antwerp
8th · 27 pts · 22 played
WDWLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Cercle Brugge had 6 days of rest, Antwerp 6.1 and had to travel 86 km.
Away travel86 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw28%
Antwerp33%
Cercle Brugge37%
Draw27%
Antwerp35%
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw28%
Antwerp33%
Cercle Brugge33%
Draw28%
Antwerp40%
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw27%
Antwerp33%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 22
Team strength
Cercle BruggeAntwerp
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
24
AttackIn forecast
24
28
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeAntwerp
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
77%
Scored inContext
64%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.27
ShotsContext
10.91
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
31%
On target shareContext
37%
9.29
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
74%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.74
13.77
Shots allowedContext
13.95
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.41
3.38
BlocksContext
4.68
3.41
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
70%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
366
PassesContext
361
279
Accurate passesContext
285
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.77
FoulsContext
12.27
12.95
Fouls sufferedContext
12.41
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
10.80
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
31%
On target shareContext
37%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
75%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.70
OffsidesContext
2.63
13.20
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.50
BlocksContext
5.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
70%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
368
PassesContext
328
275
Accurate passesContext
249
75%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.90
FoulsContext
12.50
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel86 km93 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 86 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 560 km | 93 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
24Geoffrey Kondo
66C. Ravych
15G. Magnée
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
28H. Van der Bruggen
37E. Diop
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
9S. Ngoura
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
4Yuto Tsunashima
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
8D. Praet
21A. Verstraeten
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
30C. Scott
79G. Vandeplas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-6
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 2.00
Antwerp · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Gent | L 2–4 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Charleroi | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game | 26 of 63 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws2 Antwerp wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 4 Oct 2025Antwerp1–1Cercle Brugge
- 9 Dec 2023Cercle Brugge1–3Antwerp
- 30 Jul 2023Antwerp1–0Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.18 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 36% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 36% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Cercle Brugge | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 3.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.24 | 5.09 | |
| Match total | 9.95 | 9.04 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 11/21 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 4.23 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 6/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.60 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.80 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 3.82
Red cards0.09league 0.18
Cards 5+27%league 40%
Fouls23.5league 22.9
Penalties0.14league 0.28
Home wins36%league 41%
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Nov 25H · OH Leuven1–21
Antwerp1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Aug 25A · Charleroi1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge22 games · scored 28 · conceded 31
3
3
0-15
3
7
16-30
11
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Antwerp22 games · scored 24 · conceded 24
3
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
