Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cercle Brugge34.8%fair odds 2.87
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.70
Gent38.2%fair odds 2.62
Expected goals1.32 – 1.39total 2.72
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cercle Brugge ↓ · Gent → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cercle Brugge goals, columns Gent goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.79
- 0–18.6%11.66
- 1–28.5%11.77
- 1–08.1%12.35
- 2–18.1%12.42
- 0–07.3%13.77
- 0–26.4%15.55
- 2–05.8%17.31
- 2–25.6%17.81
- 1–33.9%25.33
Winning margin
5.5%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 18.07
10.2%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 9.76
19.0%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 5.25
27.0%
Draw
fair 3.70
20.1%
Gent by 1
fair 4.97
11.4%
Gent by 2
fair 8.77
6.6%
Gent by 3+
fair 15.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Cercle Brugge goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Gent goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge win | 34.8% | 35.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.6% | +0.4 pp |
| Gent win | 38.2% | 38.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 52.7% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 57.1% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.32 | 1.36 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.39 | 1.43 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cercle Brugge win34.8%2.87
- Draw27.0%3.70
- Gent win38.2%2.62
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw61.8%1.62
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or Gent73.0%1.37
- Double chance Gent or draw65.2%1.53
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge47.7%2.10
- Draw no bet Gent52.3%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.576.1%1.31
- Over 2.551.0%1.96
- Over 3.528.9%3.46
- Over 4.513.9%7.17
- Under 1.523.9%4.18
- Under 2.549.0%2.04
- Under 3.571.1%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.542.9%2.33
- Cercle Brugge win and yes17.3%5.79
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Gent win and yes18.8%5.33
Team goals
- Cercle Brugge over 0.573.3%1.36
- Cercle Brugge over 1.538.1%2.63
- Cercle Brugge over 2.514.8%6.76
- Gent over 0.575.2%1.33
- Gent over 1.540.6%2.46
- Gent over 2.516.5%6.06
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet24.8%4.03
- Gent clean sheet26.7%3.75
- Cercle Brugge win to nil17.5%5.70
- Gent win to nil19.4%5.15
Handicap
- Cercle Brugge −1.515.8%6.33
- Cercle Brugge −2.55.5%18.07
- Gent +1.584.2%1.19
- Gent +2.594.5%1.06
- Gent −1.518.0%5.54
- Cercle Brugge +1.582.0%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored41
Favourite won63.4%
Avg chance given to result46.1%
1X2 Brier0.492
Over 2.5 called right61.0%
BTTS called right48.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 45.5% | 47.1% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 54.8% | 83.3% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 64.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 41 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4979 | 0.5133 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| Favourite won | 64.7% | 64.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 41 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.