Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Cercle Brugge had 7.7 days of rest, Gent 2.7 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days7.7 · 2.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw26%
Gent39%
Cercle Brugge34%
Draw26%
Gent40%
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw26%
Gent39%
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw25%
Gent46%
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw25%
Gent39%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeYusuke Araki
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Gent
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
24
AttackIn forecast
46
28
DefenceIn forecast
61
21
Form indexContext
86
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeGent
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
-0.88
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.50
ShotsContext
12.75
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
23%
On target shareContext
39%
13.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
70%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.25
Shots allowedContext
8.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
5.25
BlocksContext
1.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
50%
Save rateContext
82%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
370
PassesContext
473
295
Accurate passesContext
398
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.00
FoulsContext
9.75
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.40
ShotsContext
12.60
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
34%
On target shareContext
25%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
71%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.00
BlocksContext
2.90
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
55%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
376
PassesContext
439
296
Accurate passesContext
371
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.70
FoulsContext
8.90
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
DDLL
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 2 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Gent
WWWW
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +5.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 2.7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 3 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
2I. Diakité
12Valy Konaté
42L. Mondele
10J. Amani
15G. Magnée
22L. Michal
9S. Ngoura
71V. Martens
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
5M. Ngom
20Tiago Araújo
17M. Delorge-Knieper
27T. De Vlieger
57Matties Volckaert
11M. Sonko
7M. Balikwisha
47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Gent · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 20 Feb 2026Gent0–1Cercle Brugge
- 28 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge2–4Gent
- 11 Feb 2024Gent1–2Cercle Brugge
- 22 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 14.25 | 7.75 | 10.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 9.40 | 10.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yusuke Araki 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 2.76
Red cards0.00league 0.12
Cards 5+50%league 20%
Fouls24.0league 21.8
Penalties0.50league 0.27
Home wins0%league 49%
Cercle BruggeNo previous matches with this referee.
GentNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge4 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Gent4 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
