Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
14th · 28 pts · 28 played
WLWDL
First leg1–2
1–3Full time
RAAL La Louvière
15th · 27 pts · 28 played
LDLDD
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Cercle Brugge. Cercle Brugge had 7 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 8.9 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days7 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Cercle Brugge46%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Cercle Brugge45%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière28%
Cercle Brugge46%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Cercle Brugge39%
Draw29%
RAAL La Louvière33%
Cercle Brugge46%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 54
Team strength
Cercle BruggeRAAL La Louvière
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
24
AttackIn forecast
15
28
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeRAAL La Louvière
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.79
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
75%
Scored inContext
57%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
12.82
ShotsContext
9.29
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.04
32%
On target shareContext
29%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
72%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.10
13.64
Shots allowedContext
11.57
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.48
BlocksContext
3.12
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.62
70%
Save rateContext
78%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
349
PassesContext
273
263
Accurate passesContext
197
75%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.61
FoulsContext
11.11
12.36
Fouls sufferedContext
11.93
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.10
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
32%
On target shareContext
31%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
66%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.80
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.80
BlocksContext
3.25
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
79%
Save rateContext
78%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
287
PassesContext
308
202
Accurate passesContext
233
70%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.70
FoulsContext
9.80
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RAAL La Louvière
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
10O. Diakité
13D. Vanzeir
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
13M. Maisonneuve
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
3N. Gillot
23J. Ito
15S. Lahssaini
11J. Liongola
18M. Ashimeru
7P. Fall
22J. Afriyie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-8
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-6
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Gent | W 1–0 AL 2–4 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 4–3 AL 2–3 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 81 · 1.04 per game | 24 of 81 · 0.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws1 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Nov 2025RAAL La Louvière2–1Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.89 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 39% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 43% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.74 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.26 | 4.18 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.47 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 14/27 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.53 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 15/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 8/28 | 25% 7/28 | |
| Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.10 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.84
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls22.5league 22.7
Penalties0.33league 0.32
Home wins44%league 41%
Cercle Brugge3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Nov 23A · Club Brugge KV0–05
- W28 Oct 23A · KV Mechelen2–03
- L29 Sep 23A · Kortrijk1–21
RAAL La LouvièreNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge28 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
4
3
0-15
4
9
16-30
13
10
31-45
4
10
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
RAAL La Louvière28 games · scored 22 · conceded 31
2
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
10
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
