Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
15th · 13 pts · 16 played
DLLLD
First leg3–0
1–2Full time
Standard Liege
9th · 21 pts · 16 played
LWLDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Cercle Brugge had 6.9 days of rest, Standard Liege 7.8 and had to travel 176 km.
Away travel176 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege32%
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege33%
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege32%
Cercle Brugge33%
Draw27%
Standard Liege39%
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege33%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Cercle BruggeStandard Liege
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
24
AttackIn forecast
29
28
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeStandard Liege
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
69%
Scored inContext
56%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.81
ShotsContext
9.94
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
35%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.87
74%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.87
OffsidesContext
2.58
13.25
Shots allowedContext
13.94
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.13
BlocksContext
4.31
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
66%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
379
PassesContext
374
293
Accurate passesContext
296
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.75
FoulsContext
10.88
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.69
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.60
ShotsContext
10.60
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
28%
On target shareContext
34%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
73%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
3.33
OffsidesContext
3.17
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.33
BlocksContext
4.10
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
400
PassesContext
372
316
Accurate passesContext
293
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.20
FoulsContext
12.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km253 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel176 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 176 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 253 km | 176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
2I. Diakité
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
6L. Agyekum
37E. Diop
17O. Adewumi
15G. Magnée
9S. Ngoura
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
18H. Lawrence
27Mo El Hankouri
23M. Ilaimaharitra
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
10D. Eckert Ayensa
59T. Nkada
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 2.00
Standard Liege · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-5
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| OH Leuven | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Genk | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Gent | L 2–4 H | L 0–4 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 2–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 45 · 0.67 per game | 21 of 45 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Standard Liege0–3Cercle Brugge
- 26 Jan 2024Cercle Brugge1–1Standard Liege
- 19 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.06 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 38% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 31% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 44% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Cercle Brugge | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 1.90 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.87 | 5.31 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.06 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 4.32 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 4/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.80 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.30 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.78league 3.84
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+11%league 43%
Fouls22.7league 23.0
Penalties0.11league 0.29
Home wins44%league 42%
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 25A · KV Mechelen0–03
Standard LiegeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge16 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
9
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Standard Liege16 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
