Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cercle Brugge
15th · 13 pts · 16 played
DLLLD
First leg3–0
1–2Full time
Standard Liege
9th · 21 pts · 16 played
LWLDW
Cercle Brugge40.3%fair odds 2.48
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Standard Liege32.4%fair odds 3.09
Expected goals1.41 – 1.24total 2.65
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cercle Brugge ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cercle Brugge goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.69
- 1–09.3%10.75
- 2–18.7%11.48
- 0–18.1%12.34
- 0–07.7%12.96
- 1–27.7%13.05
- 2–07.0%14.24
- 0–25.4%18.41
- 2–25.4%18.51
- 3–14.1%24.42
Winning margin
7.2%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 13.85
12.1%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 8.25
21.0%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 4.77
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
18.4%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 5.45
9.4%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 10.66
4.7%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 21.36
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Cercle Brugge goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Standard Liege goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge win | 40.3% | 40.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 32.4% | 32.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 50.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.4% | 55.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.41 | 1.42 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.24 | 1.26 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cercle Brugge win40.3%2.48
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Standard Liege win32.4%3.09
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw67.6%1.48
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or Standard Liege72.7%1.38
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw59.7%1.67
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge55.4%1.80
- Draw no bet Standard Liege44.6%2.24
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.9%1.34
- Over 2.549.4%2.02
- Over 3.527.5%3.63
- Over 4.513.0%7.70
- Under 1.525.1%3.98
- Under 2.550.6%1.98
- Under 3.572.5%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes54.4%1.84
- No45.6%2.19
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.42
- Cercle Brugge win and yes19.1%5.24
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Standard Liege win and yes15.7%6.36
Team goals
- Cercle Brugge over 0.575.6%1.32
- Cercle Brugge over 1.541.2%2.43
- Cercle Brugge over 2.516.9%5.92
- Standard Liege over 0.571.1%1.41
- Standard Liege over 1.535.2%2.84
- Standard Liege over 2.512.9%7.73
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet28.9%3.46
- Standard Liege clean sheet24.4%4.10
- Cercle Brugge win to nil21.2%4.71
- Standard Liege win to nil16.7%5.99
Handicap
- Cercle Brugge −1.519.3%5.17
- Cercle Brugge −2.57.2%13.85
- Standard Liege +1.580.7%1.24
- Standard Liege +2.592.8%1.08
- Standard Liege −1.514.1%7.11
- Cercle Brugge +1.585.9%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored129
Favourite won45.0%
Avg chance given to result37.9%
1X2 Brier0.621
Over 2.5 called right52.7%
BTTS called right51.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.3% | 31.8% |
| 40–50% | 69 | 44.9% | 34.8% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 55.1% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.2% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 91 of 129 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6270 | 0.6216 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.9% | 38.6% |
| Favourite won | 44.0% | 45.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 91 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Club Brugge KV 0–1 Antwerp65·21·14
- ✗Charleroi 0–0 RAAL La Louvière40·28·31
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- ✗Dender 2–2 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–1 Standard Liege49·26·25
- ✗OH Leuven 1–2 St. Truiden38·27·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 129 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.