Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 20). Charleroi had 7.2 days of rest, Antwerp 7 and had to travel 90 km.
Away travel90 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Charleroi28%
Draw27%
Antwerp45%
Charleroi27%
Draw26%
Antwerp47%
Charleroi28%
Draw27%
Antwerp46%
Charleroi22%
Draw25%
Antwerp53%
Charleroi27%
Draw26%
Antwerp46%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
Charleroi
Antwerp
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
43
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiAntwerp
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
8.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
40%
On target shareContext
50%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
64%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
19%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.67
10.67
Shots allowedContext
12.33
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
73%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
384
PassesContext
356
312
Accurate passesContext
287
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.01
14.33
FoulsContext
9.00
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
40%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.38
ShotsContext
11.60
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
36%
On target shareContext
44%
5.38
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
62%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
16%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.38
Shots allowedContext
9.10
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.25
BlocksContext
2.25
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
365
PassesContext
505
270
Accurate passesContext
425
74%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.16
13.63
FoulsContext
9.90
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km40 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 90 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 40 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
98J. Pétris
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
17A. Bernier
19N. Štulić
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
91S. Lammens(G)
33Z. Van Den Bosch
26R. Bozhinov
4Yuto Tsunashima
5D. Foulon
20M. Doumbia
8D. Praet
10M. Balikwisha
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
22F. Adekami
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Antwerp-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Antwerp · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Charleroi wins0 draws1 Antwerp wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Jan 2024Antwerp4–1Charleroi
- 21 Oct 2023Charleroi3–2Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Charleroi | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 5.34 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Charleroi | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 9.60 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.30 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.57
Red cards0.10league 0.20
Cards 5+40%league 30%
Fouls24.9league 22.9
Penalties0.30league 0.40
Home wins40%league 47%
Charleroi2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Dec 23A · St. Truiden0–10
- W23 Sep 23H · Kortrijk1–02
AntwerpNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Antwerp3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
