Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
10th · 33 pts · 26 played
WWLLL
First leg0–1
1–2Full time
Club Brugge KV
3rd · 53 pts · 26 played
WLWWW
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 26). Charleroi had 7 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 8 and had to travel 123 km.
Away travel123 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Charleroi21%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV57%
Charleroi22%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV53%
Charleroi21%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV57%
Charleroi16%
Draw19%
Club Brugge KV65%
Charleroi22%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV56%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
CharleroiClub Brugge KV
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
43
AttackIn forecast
86
50
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiClub Brugge KV
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
81%
Scored inContext
85%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.15
ShotsContext
15.65
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.46
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.48
Shots in the boxContext
11.15
61%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.55
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.54
Shots allowedContext
11.65
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
3.20
BlocksContext
2.65
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
70%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
377
PassesContext
564
303
Accurate passesContext
493
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.62
FoulsContext
9.27
10.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.31
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.80
ShotsContext
13.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
30%
On target shareContext
47%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
61%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
2.60
BlocksContext
2.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
398
PassesContext
570
327
Accurate passesContext
499
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.30
FoulsContext
9.10
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel123 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 123 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 165 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
22S. Mignolet(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.31
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-5
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 5–5 H |
| Gent | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 3–4 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Standard Liege | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genk | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 5–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | W 4–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 33 of 75 · 1.32 per game | 50 of 75 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Charleroi wins0 draws3 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 22 Nov 2025Club Brugge KV1–0Charleroi
- 27 Jan 2024Charleroi1–4Club Brugge KV
- 16 Sep 2023Club Brugge KV4–2Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 3.08 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 54% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Charleroi | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.40 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 6.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.84 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 11.22 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 86% 19/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 3.69 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Charleroi | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.57 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.30 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.06league 3.87
Red cards0.06league 0.19
Cards 5+25%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.8
Penalties0.13league 0.31
Home wins38%league 41%
Charleroi2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Jan 26A · St. Truiden2–03
- W8 Nov 25H · KVC Westerlo2–02
Club Brugge KV3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Jan 26H · Zulte Waregem4–33
- W14 Dec 25A · Dender5–10
- W18 Oct 25A · OH Leuven1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi26 games · scored 35 · conceded 35
7
7
0-15
5
6
16-30
7
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
4
76-90
Club Brugge KV26 games · scored 49 · conceded 31
4
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
11
4
46-60
8
4
61-75
12
9
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 24 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
