Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Charleroi had 13.1 days of rest, Dender 6.1 and had to travel 59 km.
Away travel59 kmRest days13.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Charleroi41%
Draw27%
Dender32%
Charleroi41%
Draw27%
Dender32%
Charleroi41%
Draw27%
Dender32%
Charleroi34%
Draw27%
Dender39%
Charleroi41%
Draw27%
Dender32%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.72
- Matches 18
Team strength
Charleroi
Dender
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
43
AttackIn forecast
15
50
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiDender
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.20
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
75%
Scored inContext
20%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.75
ShotsContext
7.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.20
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
61%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
3%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.75
10.25
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.50
BlocksContext
2.40
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
71%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
378
PassesContext
432
306
Accurate passesContext
335
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.00
FoulsContext
9.40
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
50%
Scored inContext
20%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.25
ShotsContext
7.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.20
38%
On target shareContext
31%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
63%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
3%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.75
12.38
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.38
BlocksContext
2.40
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
74%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
375
PassesContext
432
282
Accurate passesContext
335
75%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.88
FoulsContext
9.40
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel59 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 59 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
98J. Pétris
8J. Romsaas
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
21A. Scheidler
17A. Bernier
Dender
Confirmed XI
34M. Verrips(G)
88F. Ferraro
44L. De Fougerolles
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
22B. Fredrick
17N. Mbamba
18N. Rôdes
24M. Viltard
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Dender · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 20% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 80% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
| Charleroi | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 20% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 80% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.40 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.00 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Charleroi | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 2.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 7.40 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.00 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.63
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+28%league 33%
Fouls22.9league 22.9
Penalties0.72league 0.33
Home wins67%league 45%
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W27 Dec 23H · KV Mechelen3–12
- L11 Nov 23A · KV Mechelen0–12
- W21 Oct 23H · Antwerp3–22
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi4 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Dender5 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Dender5 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
