Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Charleroi41.3%fair odds 2.42
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.71
Dender31.7%fair odds 3.15
Expected goals1.46 – 1.25total 2.70
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Charleroi ↓ · Dender → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Charleroi goals, columns Dender goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.81
- 1–09.1%10.98
- 2–18.9%11.29
- 0–17.7%12.97
- 1–27.6%13.18
- 0–07.3%13.62
- 2–07.1%14.08
- 2–25.5%18.11
- 0–25.2%19.19
- 3–14.3%23.27
Winning margin
7.7%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 12.91
12.5%
Charleroi by 2
fair 8.00
21.1%
Charleroi by 1
fair 4.74
26.9%
Draw
fair 3.71
18.0%
Dender by 1
fair 5.56
9.2%
Dender by 2
fair 10.90
4.6%
Dender by 3+
fair 21.79
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Charleroi goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Dender goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 41.3% | 41.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Dender win | 31.7% | 31.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 50.2% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.3% | 54.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 1.46 | 1.44 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.25 | 1.24 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Charleroi win41.3%2.42
- Draw26.9%3.71
- Dender win31.7%3.15
- Double chance Charleroi or draw68.3%1.46
- Double chance Charleroi or Dender73.1%1.37
- Double chance Dender or draw58.7%1.70
- Draw no bet Charleroi56.6%1.77
- Draw no bet Dender43.4%2.30
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.8%1.32
- Over 2.550.7%1.97
- Over 3.528.7%3.49
- Over 4.513.8%7.27
- Under 1.524.2%4.14
- Under 2.549.3%2.03
- Under 3.571.3%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes55.3%1.81
- No44.7%2.24
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.35
- Charleroi win and yes20.0%5.01
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Dender win and yes15.8%6.34
Team goals
- Charleroi over 0.576.7%1.30
- Charleroi over 1.542.7%2.34
- Charleroi over 2.518.0%5.55
- Dender over 0.571.3%1.40
- Dender over 1.535.4%2.82
- Dender over 2.513.1%7.64
- Charleroi clean sheet28.7%3.48
- Dender clean sheet23.3%4.29
- Charleroi win to nil21.4%4.68
- Dender win to nil16.0%6.26
Handicap
- Charleroi −1.520.2%4.94
- Charleroi −2.57.7%12.91
- Dender +1.579.8%1.25
- Dender +2.592.3%1.08
- Dender −1.513.8%7.26
- Charleroi +1.586.2%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored40
Favourite won47.5%
Avg chance given to result38.6%
1X2 Brier0.599
Over 2.5 called right55.0%
BTTS called right55.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.9% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 44.4% | 39.1% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.2% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 40 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗KVC Westerlo 2–0 Antwerp27·27·46
- ✓KV Mechelen 3–2 RAAL La Louvière49·27·24
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–1 St. Truiden42·27·31
- ✗Dender 0–1 OH Leuven48·27·25
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 Union St. Gilloise25·26·49
- ✓Antwerp 2–1 KV Mechelen50·26·23
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–2 St. Truiden40·27·33
- ✗Standard Liege 0–3 Cercle Brugge45·27·28
- ✓Cercle Brugge 4–1 KVC Westerlo47·27·26
- ✗Charleroi 1–1 Antwerp28·27·45
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 40 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.