Premier League Gameweek 36 Sat, May 15 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Everton—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 30 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Everton. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ChelseaEverton
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
77 AttackIn forecast 61
74 DefenceIn forecast 66
69 Form indexContext 50
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaEverton
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.37
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.23
86% Scored inContext 71%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
14.29 ShotsContext 14.43
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
39% On target shareContext 35%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 10.83
63% Box shareContext 68%
17% ConversionContext 8%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.29
12.43 Shots allowedContext 13.71
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29
3.67 BlocksContext 5.00
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
73% Save rateContext 70%
47% PossessionIn forecast 47%
432 PassesContext 433
361 Accurate passesContext 361
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.98
9.29 FoulsContext 7.43
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.26
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
90% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.30 ShotsContext 13.40
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
40% On target shareContext 34%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.89
60% Box shareContext 70%
17% ConversionContext 8%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.25
12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.40
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.44 BlocksContext 5.44
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
74% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
442 PassesContext 414
370 Accurate passesContext 342
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.88
10.50 FoulsContext 9.70
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Everton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel286 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 8 May7Premier League 2026-2027, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways573 km573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Everton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl
11T. Barry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Everton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Everton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentChelseaEverton
Bournemouth W 5–1 H D 1–1 A
Hull City D 2–2 H D 2–2 A
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game2 of 6 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

5 Chelsea wins2 draws3 Everton wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.80 Over 2.530% Both scored10% Clean sheets60% · 40%
  • 17 Oct 2026Everton0–2Chelsea
  • 21 Mar 2026Everton3–0Chelsea
  • 13 Dec 2025Chelsea2–0Everton
  • 26 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Everton
  • 22 Dec 2024Everton0–0Chelsea
  • 15 Apr 2024Chelsea6–0Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaEvertonForecast
Scored per game 2.431.14
Conceded per game 1.861.00
Match goals 4.292.14
Over 1.5 100%71%
Over 2.5 86%29%
Over 3.5 57%29%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 14%29%
Games77
ChelseaEvertonForecast
Scored per game 2.101.10
Conceded per game 1.701.30
Match goals 3.802.40
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 80%40%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 80%50%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaEvertonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.865.33
Corners conceded5.436.00
Match total11.2911.339.49
Over 8.571% 5/767% 4/6
Over 9.571% 5/767% 4/6
Over 10.557% 4/767% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.861.71
Opponent cards3.002.29
Match total4.864.004.17
Over 3.586% 6/757% 4/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ChelseaEvertonLeague
Corners
Corners won4.805.78
Corners conceded5.305.56
Match total10.1011.349.49
Over 8.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 9.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 10.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.601.90
Opponent cards3.101.90
Match total5.703.804.17
Over 3.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Leeds May 1515:00 Liverpool Brentford May 1515:00 Arsenal Nottingham Forest May 1515:00 Chelsea Everton May 1515:00 Crystal Palace Brighton May 1515:00 Ipswich Manchester City May 1515:00 Hull City Fulham May 1515:00 Aston Villa Newcastle May 1515:00 Sunderland Bournemouth May 1515:00 Coventry Tottenham May 1515:00