Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were clear favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 65). Chelsea had 7.7 days of rest, Fulham 5.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Chelsea61%
Draw22%
Fulham17%
Chelsea59%
Draw23%
Fulham18%
Chelsea61%
Draw22%
Fulham17%
Chelsea53%
Draw24%
Fulham23%
Chelsea59%
Draw23%
Fulham18%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 122
Team strength
Chelsea
Fulham
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
77
AttackIn forecast
66
74
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaFulham
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
50%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.50
ShotsContext
10.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
30%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
71%
Box shareContext
74%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.50
BlocksContext
1.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
88%
Save rateContext
86%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
573
PassesContext
421
508
Accurate passesContext
351
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.24
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.00
FoulsContext
13.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.40
ShotsContext
13.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
40%
On target shareContext
33%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
67%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.56
BlocksContext
3.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
82%
Save rateContext
65%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
524
PassesContext
423
458
Accurate passesContext
355
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.00
FoulsContext
12.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Aug | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.3 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
4T. Adarabioyo
23T. Chalobah
27M. Gusto
8E. Fernández
25M. Caicedo
7Pedro Neto
20João Pedro
41Estêvão
9L. Delap
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
21T. Castagne
9Rodrigo Muniz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fulham+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Fulham · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Chelsea wins1 draws2 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.63
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 13%
- 20 Apr 2025Fulham1–2Chelsea
- 26 Dec 2024Chelsea1–2Fulham
- 13 Jan 2024Chelsea1–0Fulham
- 2 Oct 2023Fulham0–2Chelsea
- 3 Feb 2023Chelsea0–0Fulham
- 12 Jan 2023Fulham2–1Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Chelsea | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 11.00 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Chelsea | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.56 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.40
Red cards0.11league 0.15
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls23.0league 21.8
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins45%league 50%
Chelsea9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D14 Jan 25H · Bournemouth2–22
- D3 Nov 24A · Manchester United1–12
- W2 May 24H · Tottenham2–00
- D7 Apr 24A · Sheffield Utd2–22
- W25 Aug 23H · Luton3–02
Fulham13 with this referee
Record2-2-9
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 May 25A · Aston Villa0–14
- L22 Feb 25H · Crystal Palace0–21
- D29 Dec 24H · Bournemouth2–21
- L23 Nov 24H · Wolves1–43
- L16 Aug 24A · Manchester United0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Fulham2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 20 · conceded 6
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
