Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Chelsea68.5%fair odds 1.46
Draw19.2%fair odds 5.21
Hull City12.4%fair odds 8.08
Expected goals2.25 – 0.86total 3.11
Likeliest score2–011.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hull City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Chelsea ↓ · Hull City → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Chelsea goals, columns Hull City goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%8.83
- 2–19.7%10.31
- 1–09.6%10.41
- 1–19.1%11.01
- 3–08.5%11.77
- 3–17.3%13.74
- 0–04.9%20.28
- 4–04.8%20.92
- 2–24.2%24.06
- 4–14.1%24.42
Winning margin
24.9%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 4.02
20.6%
Chelsea by 2
fair 4.85
23.0%
Chelsea by 1
fair 4.35
19.2%
Draw
fair 5.21
8.5%
Hull City by 1
fair 11.81
3.0%
Hull City by 2
fair 33.48
0.9%
Hull City by 3+
fair 109.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Chelsea goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Hull City goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 68.5% | 68.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.2% | 18.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Hull City win | 12.4% | 12.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 62.5% | -2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 54.0% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 2.25 | 2.32 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Hull City | 0.86 | 0.90 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Chelsea win68.5%1.46
- Draw19.2%5.21
- Hull City win12.4%8.08
- Double chance Chelsea or draw87.6%1.14
- Double chance Chelsea or Hull City80.8%1.24
- Double chance Hull City or draw31.5%3.17
- Draw no bet Chelsea84.7%1.18
- Draw no bet Hull City15.3%6.53
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.1%1.22
- Over 2.560.0%1.67
- Over 3.537.7%2.65
- Over 4.520.3%4.93
- Under 1.517.9%5.58
- Under 2.540.0%2.50
- Under 3.562.3%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes51.9%1.93
- No48.1%2.08
- Yes and over 2.542.9%2.33
- Chelsea win and yes30.9%3.23
- Draw and yes14.2%7.02
- Hull City win and yes6.8%14.78
Team goals
- Chelsea over 0.589.5%1.12
- Chelsea over 1.565.7%1.52
- Chelsea over 2.539.1%2.56
- Hull City over 0.557.5%1.74
- Hull City over 1.521.2%4.72
- Hull City over 2.55.6%17.88
- Chelsea clean sheet42.5%2.36
- Hull City clean sheet10.5%9.49
- Chelsea win to nil37.5%2.66
- Hull City win to nil5.6%17.84
Handicap
- Chelsea −1.545.5%2.20
- Chelsea −2.524.9%4.02
- Hull City +1.554.5%1.83
- Hull City +2.575.1%1.33
- Hull City −1.53.9%25.62
- Chelsea +1.596.1%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored30
Favourite won36.7%
Avg chance given to result38.0%
1X2 Brier0.649
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.4% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 44.8% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 56.1% | 30.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 67.5% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 30 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6974 | 0.6405 |
| Avg chance given to result | 34.9% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 31.6% | 36.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 30 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.