Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were clear favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 36). Chelsea had 5.9 days of rest, Hull City 6.9 and had to travel 249 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel249 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Chelsea69%
Draw18%
Hull City13%
Chelsea69%
Draw19%
Hull City13%
Chelsea69%
Draw18%
Hull City13%
Chelsea62%
Draw21%
Hull City17%
Chelsea69%
Draw18%
Hull City13%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
23°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 19 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeFarai Hallam
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 44
Team strength
Chelsea
Hull City
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
77
AttackIn forecast
37
74
DefenceIn forecast
50
80
Form indexContext
81
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHull City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaHull City
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.82
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
16.00
ShotsContext
8.33
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
35%
On target shareContext
40%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.67
66%
Box shareContext
44%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
—
15.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.00
BlocksContext
6.00
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
100%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
28%
335
PassesContext
252
264
Accurate passesContext
176
79%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.67
FoulsContext
9.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.00
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
29%
On target shareContext
36%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
58%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.20
BlocksContext
4.30
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
454
PassesContext
272
385
Accurate passesContext
181
85%
Pass accuracyContext
67%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.90
FoulsContext
9.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
WWL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 6 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Hull City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 337 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato
6L. Colwill
3W. Fofana
27M. Gusto
45R. Lavia
24R. James
17M. Rogers
10C. Palmer
7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Hull City
Confirmed XI
19K. Tzolakis(G)
3R. Giles
32N. Mendy
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
21E. Stroud
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Absences are shown before kick-off
Hull City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Hull City+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Hull City · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 1.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Chelsea | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 1.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 0% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 7.33 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.34 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Chelsea | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.66 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Farai Hallam 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.87
Red cards0.02league 0.03
Cards 5+27%league 37%
Fouls22.4league 23.4
Penalties0.14league 0.17
Home wins32%league 40%
ChelseaNo previous matches with this referee.
Hull City1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Feb 25A · Sunderland1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea3 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Hull City3 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
4
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
