Club Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Club Brugge KV
2nd · 56 pts · 27 played
LWWWW
First leg0–1
2–2Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 43 pts · 27 played
LLDWW
Our take
Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 41). Club Brugge KV had 6.8 days of rest, Anderlecht 7.7 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days6.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Club Brugge KV61%
Draw22%
Anderlecht18%
Club Brugge KV59%
Draw23%
Anderlecht18%
Club Brugge KV61%
Draw22%
Anderlecht18%
Club Brugge KV53%
Draw24%
Anderlecht23%
Club Brugge KV60%
Draw22%
Anderlecht18%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 52
Team strength
Club Brugge KVAnderlecht
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
86
AttackIn forecast
37
58
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Club Brugge KVAnderlecht
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
85%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
15.63
ShotsContext
14.56
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
35%
On target shareContext
31%
11.04
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
70%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.56
Shots allowedContext
11.89
3.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
2.70
BlocksContext
3.11
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.52
73%
Save rateContext
63%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
564
PassesContext
432
493
Accurate passesContext
353
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.26
FoulsContext
13.74
11.26
Fouls sufferedContext
11.19
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.48
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
14.70
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
44%
On target shareContext
30%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
68%
Box shareContext
62%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.10
10.80
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.00
BlocksContext
3.80
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
61%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
581
PassesContext
423
511
Accurate passesContext
345
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.10
FoulsContext
14.10
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Club Brugge KV
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km130 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Club Brugge KV |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 7.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 247 km | 130 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
22S. Mignolet(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
93M. Diarra
15M. Ilić
7I. Camara
24E. Llansana
13N. Saliba
9M. CvetkoviÄ
74N. De Cat
83T. Degreef
11T. Hazard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Club Brugge KV · Home
2.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-2
- Scored
- 2.15
- Conceded
- 1.23
Anderlecht · Away
1.15points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Club Brugge KV | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 5–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 4–3 HW 1–0 A | W 4–2 AL 2–3 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Genk | W 5–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Gent | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H |
| Dender | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 5–5 H | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 56 of 78 · 2.15 per game | 40 of 78 · 1.54 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Club Brugge KV wins1 draws2 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025Anderlecht1–0Club Brugge KV
- 25 Feb 2024Club Brugge KV1–2Anderlecht
- 24 Sep 2023Anderlecht1–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Club Brugge KV | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.67 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 41% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 30% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Club Brugge KV | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 3.20 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Club Brugge KV | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.35 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.78 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 19/23 | 85% 23/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 74% 17/23 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 61% 14/23 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.37 | 2.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 5.18 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 14/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Club Brugge KV | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 11.90 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.60 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.86
Red cards0.12league 0.20
Cards 5+40%league 41%
Fouls22.5league 22.7
Penalties0.35league 0.31
Home wins46%league 40%
Club Brugge KV4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Nov 25A · Anderlecht0–14
- L25 Feb 24H · Anderlecht1–20
- D12 Nov 23H · Cercle Brugge0–02
- L8 Oct 23A · Standard Liege1–21
Anderlecht9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L1 Feb 26A · Standard Liege0–24
- D21 Dec 25A · Antwerp2–23
- W9 Nov 25H · Club Brugge KV1–05
- D20 Sep 25H · Antwerp0–03
- L16 Mar 24H · Kortrijk0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Club Brugge KV27 games · scored 51 · conceded 32
4
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
7
5
31-45
11
4
46-60
9
4
61-75
13
9
76-90
Anderlecht27 games · scored 39 · conceded 33
6
5
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
3
31-45
8
6
46-60
8
2
61-75
7
11
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 24 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
