Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Club Brugge KV
2nd · 56 pts · 27 played
LWWWW
First leg0–1
2–2Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 43 pts · 27 played
LLDWW
Club Brugge KV60.9%fair odds 1.64
Draw21.5%fair odds 4.64
Anderlecht17.6%fair odds 5.70
Expected goals2.08 – 1.04total 3.12
Likeliest score1–110.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Club Brugge KV ↓ · Anderlecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Club Brugge KV goals, columns Anderlecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%9.95
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 2–09.6%10.44
- 1–08.7%11.49
- 3–16.9%14.50
- 3–06.7%15.04
- 2–25.1%19.42
- 1–24.9%20.21
- 0–04.9%20.29
- 0–14.1%24.52
Winning margin
19.3%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 5.17
18.6%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 5.37
22.9%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.36
21.5%
Draw
fair 4.64
11.2%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 8.96
4.6%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 21.65
1.8%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 56.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
21%5+
Club Brugge KV goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Anderlecht goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 60.9% | 59.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Anderlecht win | 17.6% | 17.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 57.7% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 55.3% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 2.08 | 2.00 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.04 | 1.00 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Club Brugge KV win60.9%1.64
- Draw21.5%4.64
- Anderlecht win17.6%5.70
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw82.4%1.21
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or Anderlecht78.5%1.27
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw39.1%2.56
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV77.6%1.29
- Draw no bet Anderlecht22.4%4.47
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.3%1.22
- Over 2.560.3%1.66
- Over 3.537.9%2.64
- Over 4.520.5%4.88
- Under 1.517.7%5.65
- Under 2.539.7%2.52
- Under 3.562.1%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.546.9%2.13
- Club Brugge KV win and yes30.4%3.29
- Draw and yes16.6%6.02
- Anderlecht win and yes10.0%9.99
Team goals
- Club Brugge KV over 0.587.5%1.14
- Club Brugge KV over 1.561.6%1.62
- Club Brugge KV over 2.534.5%2.89
- Anderlecht over 0.564.5%1.55
- Anderlecht over 1.527.8%3.60
- Anderlecht over 2.58.7%11.47
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet35.5%2.82
- Anderlecht clean sheet12.5%8.02
- Club Brugge KV win to nil30.5%3.27
- Anderlecht win to nil7.5%13.26
Handicap
- Club Brugge KV −1.538.0%2.63
- Club Brugge KV −2.519.3%5.17
- Anderlecht +1.562.0%1.61
- Anderlecht +2.580.7%1.24
- Anderlecht −1.56.4%15.65
- Club Brugge KV +1.593.6%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored220
Favourite won43.6%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.633
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right50.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 99 | 44.8% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 54 | 54.7% | 53.7% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.6% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 220 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 220 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.