Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Club Brugge KV40.4%fair odds 2.47
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Aston Villa33.7%fair odds 2.97
Expected goals1.53 – 1.38total 2.91
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Club Brugge KV ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Club Brugge KV goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.27
- 2–18.8%11.36
- 1–27.9%12.60
- 1–07.7%12.97
- 0–16.9%14.52
- 2–06.4%15.69
- 2–26.1%16.45
- 0–06.0%16.57
- 0–25.2%19.32
- 3–14.5%22.24
Winning margin
8.0%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 12.54
12.2%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 8.17
20.2%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.94
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
18.2%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 5.50
9.9%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 10.06
5.6%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 17.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Club Brugge KV goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Aston Villa goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 40.4% | 39.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 33.7% | 34.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 53.4% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.3% | 57.6% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 1.53 | 1.47 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.38 | 1.35 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Club Brugge KV win40.4%2.47
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Aston Villa win33.7%2.97
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw66.3%1.51
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or Aston Villa74.2%1.35
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw59.6%1.68
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV54.5%1.83
- Draw no bet Aston Villa45.5%2.20
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.4%1.26
- Over 2.555.7%1.79
- Over 3.533.3%3.00
- Over 4.517.0%5.87
- Under 1.520.6%4.85
- Under 2.544.3%2.26
- Under 3.566.7%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes59.3%1.69
- No40.7%2.46
- Yes and over 2.547.2%2.12
- Club Brugge KV win and yes21.4%4.68
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Aston Villa win and yes18.1%5.51
Team goals
- Club Brugge KV over 0.578.4%1.28
- Club Brugge KV over 1.545.3%2.21
- Club Brugge KV over 2.519.9%5.02
- Aston Villa over 0.574.9%1.34
- Aston Villa over 1.540.2%2.49
- Aston Villa over 2.516.2%6.17
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet25.1%3.98
- Aston Villa clean sheet21.6%4.63
- Club Brugge KV win to nil19.1%5.24
- Aston Villa win to nil15.6%6.43
Handicap
- Club Brugge KV −1.520.2%4.95
- Club Brugge KV −2.58.0%12.54
- Aston Villa +1.579.8%1.25
- Aston Villa +2.592.0%1.09
- Aston Villa −1.515.5%6.44
- Club Brugge KV +1.584.5%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.