Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa – 8 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Tue, Sep 8 · 17:45 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge

Club Brugge KV

2–3Full time

Aston Villa

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 74). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Club Brugge KV. Club Brugge KV had 3.9 days of rest, Aston Villa 3 and had to travel 379 km. Weather to note: heavy rain.

Away travel379 kmRest days3.9 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Club Brugge KV41%

Draw25%

Aston Villa34%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.38

Club Brugge KV37%

Draw26%

Aston Villa37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Club Brugge KV40%

Draw25%

Aston Villa35%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.39

Club Brugge KV34%

Draw25%

Aston Villa42%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.55

Club Brugge KV40%

Draw25%

Aston Villa35%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.35

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brugge)

18°CRain

Precipitation 5.2 mm
Wind 22 km/h
Humidity 92%

Heavy rain

RefereeSandro Schärer

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 42

Team strength

Club Brugge KV

Aston Villa

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

86 AttackIn forecast 83

58 DefenceIn forecast 78

76 Form indexContext 36

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KV

Aston Villa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

100% Scored inContext 60%

70% Clean sheetsContext 30%

18.60 ShotsContext 11.90

6.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

37% On target shareContext 35%

13.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

73% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 13%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.70 Shots allowedContext 11.60

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.60 BlocksContext 3.29

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

85% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 49%

564 PassesContext 407

495 Accurate passesContext 347

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.32 Team ratingContext 6.79

8.40 FoulsContext 10.80

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV WWWLW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km368 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 76 · 12 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W4 SepA · Lommel United1–01.8 xPts
L30 AugA · Gent1–21.8 xPts
W23 AugH · Cercle Brugge1–02.5 xPts
W15 AugA · OH Leuven3–02.3 xPts
W7 AugH · Kortrijk3–02.7 xPts

Aston Villa LLD

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel379 km350 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

Form 36 · 1 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected

D5 SepA · Hull City0–01.9 xPts
L31 AugH · Arsenal0–11.0 xPts
L23 AugA · Brighton0–41.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Club Brugge KV	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 4 Sep	3Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	379 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	368 km	350 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Y. Sommer(G)

65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 3H. Lee 64K. Sabbe

20H. Vanaken 8F. Potts

11J. Virgili 10H. Vetlesen 9Carlos Forbs

7N. Tresoldi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Z. Suzuki(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 29A. Wan-Bissaka

35João Gomes 8B. Kamara

53George Hemmings 10E. Buendía 7J. McGinn

11N. Jackson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Club Brugge KV Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Club Brugge KV+1.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Aston Villa-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home No home games yet this season.

Aston Villa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Club Brugge KV wins0 draws2 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

12 Mar 2025Aston Villa3–0Club Brugge KV
4 Mar 2025Club Brugge KV1–3Aston Villa
6 Nov 2024Club Brugge KV1–0Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Club Brugge KV	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.91
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Club Brugge KV	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.60
Conceded per game	0.80	1.30
Match goals	2.90	2.90	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Club Brugge KV	Aston Villa
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Club Brugge KV	Aston Villa
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.00
Corners conceded	4.10	4.50
Match total	11.10	9.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	2.70	3.30
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sandro Schärer 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74

Red cards0.21

Cards 5+38%

Fouls22.9

Penalties0.31

Home wins40%

Club Brugge KV1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D15 Sep 21H · Paris Saint Germain1–12

Aston Villa1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W9 Apr 26A · Bologna3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.