Club Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 19). Club Brugge KV had 6.2 days of rest, Dender 7.1 and had to travel 70 km.
Away travel70 kmRest days6.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Club Brugge KV77%
Draw15%
Dender8%
Club Brugge KV76%
Draw16%
Dender8%
Club Brugge KV77%
Draw15%
Dender8%
Club Brugge KV70%
Draw19%
Dender11%
Club Brugge KV76%
Draw16%
Dender8%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 18
Team strength
Club Brugge KV
Dender
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
86
AttackIn forecast
15
58
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Club Brugge KVDender
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.42
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
92%
Scored inContext
42%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
15.50
ShotsContext
9.00
4.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.08
32%
On target shareContext
34%
10.58
Shots in the boxContext
6.42
66%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
5%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.58
BlocksContext
3.83
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
83%
Save rateContext
67%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
549
PassesContext
397
479
Accurate passesContext
306
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.50
FoulsContext
10.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
80%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.20
ShotsContext
8.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
64%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.00
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.10
BlocksContext
4.30
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
73%
Save rateContext
63%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
519
PassesContext
387
452
Accurate passesContext
298
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.67
8.70
FoulsContext
10.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Club Brugge KV
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel70 km126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Club Brugge KV |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 70 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 173 km | 126 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
20H. Vanaken
25A. Stanković
17R. Vermant
8C. Tzolis
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
22B. Fredrick
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
9David Toševski
77B. Nsimba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Club Brugge KV · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Dender · Away
0.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Club Brugge KV | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 5–5 H | D 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 20 of 30 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 30 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Club Brugge KV | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 0.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 8% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 42% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 58% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Club Brugge KV | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Club Brugge KV | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.73 | 2.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.09 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 10.82 | 8.00 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 8/11 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 8% 1/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 3.33 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Club Brugge KV | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.40 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.86
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls23.1league 23.3
Penalties0.39league 0.29
Home wins22%league 42%
Club Brugge KV2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Mar 24A · St. Truiden1–22
- L21 Oct 23A · Kortrijk0–12
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Club Brugge KV12 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Dender12 games · scored 5 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
6
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 4 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
