Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 21 · 17:15 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 3rd · 50 pts · 25 played
First leg1–0 2–1Full time
OH Leuven 13th · 28 pts · 25 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. Club Brugge KV had 6.2 days of rest, OH Leuven 7.1 and had to travel 110 km.

Away travel110 kmRest days6.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Club Brugge KV68%
Draw19%
OH Leuven14%
Expected goals 2.35 – 0.98
Club Brugge KV70%
Draw19%
OH Leuven11%
Expected goals 2.25 – 0.80
Club Brugge KV68%
Draw19%
OH Leuven14%
Expected goals 2.35 – 0.98
Club Brugge KV60%
Draw22%
OH Leuven19%
Expected goals 2.10 – 1.10
Club Brugge KV66%
Draw19%
OH Leuven14%
Expected goals 2.30 – 0.98
Over 2.5 65% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)

No weather data yet

RefereeJasper Vergoote
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.45
  • Matches 44

Team strength

Club Brugge KVOH Leuven
66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
86 AttackIn forecast 17
58 DefenceIn forecast 30
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KVOH Leuven
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.08
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37
+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
84% Scored inContext 68%
32% Clean sheetsContext 24%
15.40 ShotsContext 13.28
5.28 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
34% On target shareContext 33%
10.76 Shots in the boxContext 8.88
69% Box shareContext 67%
12% ConversionContext 8%
2.07 OffsidesContext 1.88
11.64 Shots allowedContext 12.76
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
2.68 BlocksContext 3.38
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
73% Save rateContext 70%
63% PossessionIn forecast 45%
566 PassesContext 333
495 Accurate passesContext 256
87% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.74
9.36 FoulsContext 15.48
11.32 Fouls sufferedContext 11.28
1.36 Yellow cardsContext 3.08
0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games
2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.57
1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
+1.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.47
90% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.40 ShotsContext 15.30
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
44% On target shareContext 33%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.70
73% Box shareContext 64%
21% ConversionContext 7%
2.40 OffsidesContext 2.10
11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.10
4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.00 BlocksContext 4.20
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
67% Save rateContext 74%
60% PossessionIn forecast 46%
568 PassesContext 336
495 Accurate passesContext 256
87% Pass accuracyContext 76%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.78
9.80 FoulsContext 14.30
10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 3.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
OH Leuven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel110 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Club Brugge KV OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km110 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km143 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 40 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one87.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
22S. Mignolet(G)
14B. Meijer 44B. Mechele 4J. Ordoñez 41H. Siquet
15R. Onyedika 80F. Lemaréchal
8C. Tzolis 20H. Vanaken 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
OH Leuven Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
16M. Prévot(G)
30T. Akimoto 34R. Nyakossi 28E. Pletinckx
14H. Teklab 24Ł. Łakomy 8S. Schrijvers 27Óscar Gil
7T. Verlinden 33M. Maertens
19C. Ikwuemesi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home 2.33points per game · 12 home games
W-D-L
9-1-2
Scored
2.17
Conceded
1.25
OH Leuven · Away 1.17points per game · 12 away games
W-D-L
4-2-6
Scored
0.83
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentClub Brugge KVOH Leuven
Cercle Brugge W 2–1 AW 2–0 H L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Standard Liege W 3–0 HW 2–1 A W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–1 AW 1–0 H D 0–0 HL 0–5 A
Zulte Waregem W 4–3 HW 1–0 A D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
RAAL La Louvière L 2–3 HL 0–1 A D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Genk W 5–3 AW 2–1 H L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Gent W 2–1 HD 1–1 A W 3–1 AW 4–0 H
Dender W 5–1 AW 2–1 H W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
St. Truiden L 2–3 AW 2–0 H L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Antwerp L 0–1 HW 1–0 A L 1–3 A
Charleroi W 1–0 H D 2–2 H
Anderlecht L 0–1 A D 1–1 H
KVC Westerlo D 5–5 H L 0–2 A
KV Mechelen L 1–2 A D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
Points47 of 72 · 1.96 per game28 of 72 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 Club Brugge KV wins0 draws0 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%
  • 18 Oct 2025OH Leuven0–1Club Brugge KV
  • 10 Mar 2024Club Brugge KV3–1OH Leuven
  • 26 Nov 2023OH Leuven0–1Club Brugge KV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Club Brugge KVOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.881.08
Conceded per game 1.201.40
Match goals 3.082.48 3.33
Over 1.5 64%72%
Over 2.5 52%48% 65%
Over 3.5 24%28%
Both teams scored 52%52% 57%
Clean sheets 32%24%
Failed to score 16%32%
Games2525
Club Brugge KVOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 2.501.10
Conceded per game 1.701.10
Match goals 4.202.20 3.33
Over 1.5 80%60%
Over 2.5 80%40% 65%
Over 3.5 50%30%
Both teams scored 70%50% 57%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 20%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Club Brugge KVOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.244.83
Corners conceded4.815.42
Match total11.0510.259.83
Over 8.586% 18/2163% 15/24
Over 9.576% 16/2158% 14/24
Over 10.562% 13/2154% 13/24
Cards
Cards1.443.12
Opponent cards2.362.40
Match total3.805.524.16
Over 3.552% 13/2580% 20/25
Over 4.532% 8/2560% 15/25
Club Brugge KVOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.715.20
Corners conceded5.576.30
Match total10.2811.509.83
Over 8.5100% 7/770% 7/10
Over 9.557% 4/770% 7/10
Over 10.543% 3/770% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.403.20
Opponent cards2.302.50
Match total3.705.704.16
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.80league 3.93
Red cards0.27league 0.19
Cards 5+32%league 42%
Fouls23.6league 22.8
Penalties0.45league 0.30
Home wins57%league 40%
Club Brugge KV9 with this referee
Record5-1-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds3
  • W21 Dec 25H · Gent2–10
  • W27 Sep 25A · Standard Liege2–11
  • W27 Jul 25H · Genk2–12
  • W3 Mar 24A · Genk3–02
  • L4 Feb 24A · Antwerp1–26
OH Leuven2 with this referee
Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W24 Aug 25A · Dender1–04
  • L16 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Club Brugge KV25 games · scored 47 · conceded 30
4 5 0-15
7 5 16-30
7 4 31-45
10 3 46-60
7 4 61-75
12 9 76-90
OH Leuven25 games · scored 27 · conceded 35
3 7 0-15
3 6 16-30
6 5 31-45
2 6 46-60
6 2 61-75
7 9 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 28 · conceded 16
4 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
6 3 31-45
6 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
7 6 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1 3 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Gent Cercle Brugge 01 Dender St. Truiden 14 Club Brugge KV OH Leuven 21 Union St. Gilloise Antwerp 21 Genk Standard Liege 03 RAAL La Louvière KV Mechelen 02 Zulte Waregem Anderlecht 24 KVC Westerlo Charleroi 21