Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Club Brugge KV
3rd · 50 pts · 25 played
LWLWW
First leg1–0
2–1Full time
OH Leuven
13th · 28 pts · 25 played
LDDWW
Club Brugge KV67.5%fair odds 1.48
Draw18.8%fair odds 5.31
OH Leuven13.6%fair odds 7.33
Expected goals2.35 – 0.98total 3.33
Likeliest score2–09.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Club Brugge KV ↓ · OH Leuven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Club Brugge KV goals, columns OH Leuven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.9%10.09
- 2–19.7%10.33
- 1–18.7%11.53
- 1–08.0%12.51
- 3–07.8%12.87
- 3–17.6%13.18
- 2–24.7%21.14
- 4–04.6%21.90
- 4–14.5%22.41
- 1–24.0%24.85
Winning margin
25.3%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 3.95
20.0%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 4.99
22.2%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.51
18.8%
Draw
fair 5.31
9.0%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 11.16
3.5%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 28.89
1.2%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 82.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Club Brugge KV goals
10%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
OH Leuven goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 67.5% | 66.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 18.8% | 19.3% | -0.5 pp |
| OH Leuven win | 13.6% | 14.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 63.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.9% | 56.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 2.35 | 2.30 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 0.98 | 0.98 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Club Brugge KV win67.5%1.48
- Draw18.8%5.31
- OH Leuven win13.6%7.33
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw86.4%1.16
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or OH Leuven81.2%1.23
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw32.5%3.08
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV83.2%1.20
- Draw no bet OH Leuven16.8%5.95
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.584.9%1.18
- Over 2.564.6%1.55
- Over 3.542.6%2.35
- Over 4.524.3%4.12
- Under 1.515.1%6.63
- Under 2.535.4%2.83
- Under 3.557.4%1.74
Both teams to score
- Yes56.9%1.76
- No43.1%2.32
- Yes and over 2.548.2%2.08
- Club Brugge KV win and yes33.9%2.95
- Draw and yes14.8%6.76
- OH Leuven win and yes8.1%12.28
Team goals
- Club Brugge KV over 0.590.5%1.11
- Club Brugge KV over 1.568.1%1.47
- Club Brugge KV over 2.541.8%2.40
- OH Leuven over 0.562.4%1.60
- OH Leuven over 1.525.6%3.91
- OH Leuven over 2.57.6%13.13
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet37.6%2.66
- OH Leuven clean sheet9.5%10.50
- Club Brugge KV win to nil33.6%2.97
- OH Leuven win to nil5.5%18.17
Handicap
- Club Brugge KV −1.545.4%2.21
- Club Brugge KV −2.525.3%3.95
- OH Leuven +1.554.6%1.83
- OH Leuven +2.574.7%1.34
- OH Leuven −1.54.7%21.36
- Club Brugge KV +1.595.3%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored202
Favourite won43.1%
Avg chance given to result37.1%
1X2 Brier0.638
Over 2.5 called right51.5%
BTTS called right51.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.0% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 44.8% | 36.6% |
| 50–60% | 48 | 54.6% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.5% | 73.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 164 of 202 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6449 | 0.6328 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.9% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 42.1% | 42.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 164 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Dender 1–4 St. Truiden28·26·47
- ✗Gent 0–1 Cercle Brugge57·23·20
- ✓St. Truiden 3–2 Zulte Waregem58·24·18
- ✗Anderlecht 0–0 RAAL La Louvière53·26·21
- ✗Antwerp 0–2 KVC Westerlo61·22·17
- ✓Cercle Brugge 1–2 Club Brugge KV18·22·60
- ✗Standard Liege 1–1 Union St. Gilloise21·27·52
- ✗Charleroi 2–3 Gent44·27·30
- ✓OH Leuven 3–2 Dender48·26·26
- ✗KV Mechelen 2–3 Genk38·26·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 202 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.