Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Oct 5 · 17:30 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 3rd · 17 pts · 9 played
1–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 23 pts · 9 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 59). Club Brugge KV had 8 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 7.9 and had to travel 88 km.

Away travel88 kmRest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Club Brugge KV49%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise25%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.13
Club Brugge KV48%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise26%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11
Club Brugge KV49%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise25%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.13
Club Brugge KV42%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise32%
Expected goals 1.49 – 1.27
Club Brugge KV48%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise26%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11
Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)

No weather data yet

RefereeJan Boterberg
  • Cards per match 3.0
  • Penalties per match 0.25
  • Matches 20

Team strength

Club Brugge KVUnion St. Gilloise
66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 66
86 AttackIn forecast 62
58 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KVUnion St. Gilloise
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11
1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.44
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 2.22
0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.56
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.11
89% Scored inContext 89%
33% Clean sheetsContext 67%
17.22 ShotsContext 15.89
5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.78
32% On target shareContext 43%
12.44 Shots in the boxContext 12.13
72% Box shareContext 75%
10% ConversionContext 13%
1.75 OffsidesContext 3.38
12.00 Shots allowedContext 8.78
4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38
2.67 BlocksContext 1.78
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
79% Save rateContext 82%
63% PossessionIn forecast 56%
571 PassesContext 440
500 Accurate passesContext 360
88% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.05
9.56 FoulsContext 12.11
11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 9.22
1.22 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 2.18
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91
+0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.08
90% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 60%
18.10 ShotsContext 15.90
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70
39% On target shareContext 42%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.44
71% Box shareContext 71%
14% ConversionContext 13%
1.67 OffsidesContext 3.89
12.00 Shots allowedContext 9.30
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
3.50 BlocksContext 2.00
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
79% Save rateContext 74%
60% PossessionIn forecast 53%
557 PassesContext 418
489 Accurate passesContext 338
88% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.16 Team ratingContext 7.01
8.90 FoulsContext 11.70
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Club Brugge KV Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Sep7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways353 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 3 / 40 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1313.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
29N. Jackers(G)
14B. Meijer 44B. Mechele 4J. Ordoñez 65J. Seys
20H. Vanaken 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 17R. Vermant 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen 16C. Burgess 5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang 6K. Van de Perre 8A. Zorgane 25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
30R. Florucz 13K. Rodríguez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Union St. Gilloise · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
1.40
Conceded
0.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentClub Brugge KVUnion St. Gilloise
Standard Liege W 2–1 A W 3–0 H
KVC Westerlo D 5–5 H W 2–0 H
RAAL La Louvière L 0–1 A D 0–0 A
Gent D 1–1 A W 3–2 A
Genk W 2–1 H W 2–1 A
Points8 of 15 · 1.60 per game13 of 15 · 2.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Club Brugge KV wins1 draws1 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 26 Dec 2023Club Brugge KV1–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 5 Nov 2023Union St. Gilloise2–1Club Brugge KV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Club Brugge KVUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.782.11
Conceded per game 1.220.44
Match goals 3.002.56 2.80
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 44%44% 53%
Over 3.5 11%22%
Both teams scored 56%33% 56%
Clean sheets 33%67%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
Club Brugge KVUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.782.11
Conceded per game 1.220.44
Match goals 3.002.56 2.80
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 44%44% 53%
Over 3.5 11%22%
Both teams scored 56%33% 56%
Clean sheets 33%67%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Club Brugge KVUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won6.636.33
Corners conceded4.633.89
Match total11.2610.229.62
Over 8.575% 6/867% 6/9
Over 9.575% 6/867% 6/9
Over 10.575% 6/856% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.332.22
Opponent cards2.672.22
Match total4.004.444.22
Over 3.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 4.533% 3/967% 6/9
Club Brugge KVUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won6.566.60
Corners conceded5.004.50
Match total11.5611.109.62
Over 8.567% 6/980% 8/10
Over 9.567% 6/980% 8/10
Over 10.567% 6/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.202.10
Opponent cards2.301.80
Match total3.503.904.22
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jan Boterberg 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.80league 3.96
Red cards0.15league 0.24
Cards 5+15%league 45%
Fouls19.2league 22.8
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins50%league 41%
Club Brugge KV4 with this referee
Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W16 Aug 25A · Zulte Waregem1–02
  • W10 Mar 24H · OH Leuven3–10
  • W10 Feb 24H · AS Eupen4–00
  • W6 Aug 23A · KVC Westerlo1–00
Union St. Gilloise2 with this referee
Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 0
  • W3 Aug 25H · OH Leuven5–01
  • D3 Sep 23H · Antwerp2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Club Brugge KV9 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1 4 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 19 · conceded 4
4 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
5 61-75
5 2 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
4 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
10 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
5 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Gent Charleroi 21 KV Mechelen St. Truiden 13 RAAL La Louvière Zulte Waregem 00 Antwerp Cercle Brugge 11 Anderlecht Standard Liege 10 Genk Dender 21 Club Brugge KV Union St. Gilloise 10 KVC Westerlo OH Leuven 20