Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Como had 4 days of rest, Bologna 2.9 and had to travel 229 km.
Away travel229 kmRest days4 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Como43%
Draw27%
Bologna29%
Como43%
Draw27%
Bologna30%
Como43%
Draw27%
Bologna29%
Como36%
Draw28%
Bologna36%
Como43%
Draw27%
Bologna30%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 48
Team strength
Como
Bologna
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
72
AttackIn forecast
35
67
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoBologna
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
72%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.61
ShotsContext
13.06
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
36%
On target shareContext
31%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
60%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.45
OffsidesContext
2.43
10.17
Shots allowedContext
10.33
3.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.33
BlocksContext
3.00
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
73%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
499
PassesContext
422
431
Accurate passesContext
349
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.33
FoulsContext
14.28
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.56
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
14.80
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
61%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.80
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.50
BlocksContext
2.44
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
79%
Save rateContext
73%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
524
PassesContext
408
455
Accurate passesContext
333
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.50
FoulsContext
14.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,420 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Bologna
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel229 km401 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Jan | 2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 229 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,420 km | 401 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
20N. Zortea
4T. Pobega
8R. Freuler
28N. Cambiaghi
80G. Fabbian
11J. Rowe
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.38
Bologna · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Como | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Lecce | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Torino | W 5–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 30 of 48 · 1.88 per game | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Como wins1 draws2 Bologna wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 30 Aug 2025Bologna1–0Como
- 1 Feb 2025Bologna2–0Como
- 14 Sep 2024Como2–2Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.44 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 44% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Como | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.53 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 7.26 | 9.11 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 5/15 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 3/15 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 2/15 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.56 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 8/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Como | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.66 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.87
Red cards0.29league 0.16
Cards 5+48%league 37%
Fouls25.2league 25.8
Penalties0.35league 0.31
Home wins27%league 37%
Como2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D18 May 25A · Verona1–13
- L7 Feb 25H · Juventus1–23
Bologna6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W5 Oct 25H · Pisa4–00
- L22 Feb 25A · Parma0–21
- D12 Jan 25H · AS Roma2–24
- W23 Feb 24H · Verona2–02
- L2 Oct 22A · Juventus0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como17 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Bologna18 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
