Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 63). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. Como had 6.3 days of rest, Inter 7 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Como37%
Draw29%
Inter34%
Como29%
Draw27%
Inter45%
Como36%
Draw29%
Inter35%
Como31%
Draw28%
Inter41%
Como37%
Draw28%
Inter35%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 111
Team strength
Como
Inter
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
72
AttackIn forecast
91
67
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoInter
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.84
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
74%
Scored inContext
94%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
14.00
ShotsContext
17.58
4.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.03
36%
On target shareContext
34%
9.07
Shots in the boxContext
12.48
64%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.55
OffsidesContext
1.93
8.97
Shots allowedContext
8.35
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.12
BlocksContext
2.64
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
75%
Save rateContext
76%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
525
PassesContext
539
459
Accurate passesContext
472
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.05
13.19
FoulsContext
13.13
11.81
Fouls sufferedContext
11.03
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.00
ShotsContext
18.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
35%
On target shareContext
34%
10.44
Shots in the boxContext
13.80
67%
Box shareContext
77%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.70
7.30
Shots allowedContext
8.30
2.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.00
BlocksContext
1.57
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
77%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
546
PassesContext
570
482
Accurate passesContext
502
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.10
FoulsContext
10.60
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km645 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 645 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
77I. Van der Brempt
23M. Perrone
8Sergi Roberto
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
7P. Zieliński
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
9M. Thuram
94F. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Inter-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-2
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 0.69
Inter · Away
2.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-3
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Pisa | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Lecce | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Juventus | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 58 of 90 · 1.93 per game | 69 of 90 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Como wins0 draws3 Inter wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 6 Dec 2025Inter4–0Como
- 23 May 2025Como0–2Inter
- 23 Dec 2024Inter2–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 0.84 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 3.13 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 52% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 45% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 6% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Como | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.07 | 2.65 | |
| Match total | 7.07 | 9.04 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 21% 6/28 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 4/28 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 3/28 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 3.32 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 21/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 15/31 | 19% 6/31 | |
| Como | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 8.90 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.30 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 3.70
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls24.9league 24.9
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins37%league 40%
Como2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W15 Mar 26H · AS Roma2–12
- L23 May 25H · Inter0–22
Inter9 with this referee
Record7-1-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W1 Feb 26A · Cremonese2–00
- W18 Oct 25A · AS Roma1–03
- W23 May 25A · Como2–03
- W16 Mar 25A · Atalanta2–03
- W20 Oct 24A · AS Roma1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como30 games · scored 51 · conceded 21
10
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
7
6
46-60
10
3
61-75
12
4
76-90
Inter31 games · scored 71 · conceded 26
11
2
0-15
9
4
16-30
11
6
31-45
10
2
46-60
13
3
61-75
17
9
76-90
Como10 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
