Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel29 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Como—%
Draw—%
Monza—%
Weather (Como)
Forecast from 23 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Como and Monza. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Como
+0.47
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.88xG against1.41
-
Trend
Monza
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Como
1.5
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Como
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Monza
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Monza
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
-
Insight
Como
+0.47
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.88xG against1.41
-
Trend
Como
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Monza
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Monza
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
Monza
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Como
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Team strength
ComoMonza
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
72
AttackIn forecast
34
67
DefenceIn forecast
26
50
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonza
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoMonza
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
71%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
21.43
ShotsContext
13.71
6.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
32%
On target shareContext
43%
13.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
62%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.83
14.71
Shots allowedContext
13.14
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.14
2.86
BlocksContext
2.71
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
64%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
588
PassesContext
376
527
Accurate passesContext
306
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.57
8.29
FoulsContext
11.86
9.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
19.00
ShotsContext
11.90
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
34%
On target shareContext
41%
12.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
63%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
3.20
OffsidesContext
3.78
13.60
Shots allowedContext
14.30
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.70
BlocksContext
2.90
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
69%
Save rateContext
65%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
571
PassesContext
407
513
Accurate passesContext
341
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.62
9.70
FoulsContext
10.80
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
WLDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,831 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Monza
DLWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Monza |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Jan | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,831 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
99T. Chalobah
28I. Smolčić
7L. da Cunha
6Luis Milla
8M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
30M. Liberali
9A. Douvikas
Monza
Last XI · not confirmed
1N. Törnqvist(G)
44A. Carboni
2S. Goglichidze
60E. Kouadio
7Ricardo Mangas
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Foe-Ondoa
19S. Birindelli
46J. Robinson
47Dany Mota
9Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Monza
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Monza · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Como | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Como wins1 draws0 Monza wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Apr 2025Monza1–3Como
- 30 Nov 2024Como1–1Monza
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Como | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.29 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.86 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.42 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Como | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.10 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Como7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Monza7 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Monza10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
